Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS): August 2025 (Preliminary)

The Chicago Fed's preliminary nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in August is 0.6% MoM and 4.5% YoY, which would be a strong acceleration from growth of 3.7% YoY in July.
- The nowcast is based on positive contributions from all data sources: transactions (+26 bps), foot traffic & sentiment data (+18 bps), and Census data (+15 bps).
- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.3% MoM and 0.9% YoY.
- The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.3% MoM, matching the pace seen in July.
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