Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS): August 2025 (Final)

Mon, Sep 15, 2025 · 8:30 AM ET Next release · Nov 6, 8:30 AM ET

The Chicago Fed’s final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in August is 0.4% MoM and 4.3% YoY, revised down from the initial estimate of a 0.6% MoM and 4.5% YoY.

  • The nowcast is based on positive contributions from all data sources: transactions (+15 bps), foot traffic & sentiment data (+17 bps), and Census data (+10 bps).
  • The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is unchanged on a monthly basis at 0.3% MoM but revised up slightly on an annual basis to 1.0% YoY (due to CPI being released last week).
  • The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales for August was adjusted down to 0.1% MoM from the initial estimate of 0.3% MoM, the weakest since the declines seen in May and April.

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