The Chicago Fed’s initial nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in April is -0.2% MoM and 3.2% YoY which would be down from 4.1% YoY in March.

• This would be the second monthly decline in sales in the last four months.
• Most of the nowcast is a result from weak transactions data (-53 bps) while Census data (+31 bps) was a positive contributor to the forecast and foot traffic data was insignificant.
• The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.2% MoM and -0.3% YoY.
• With prices declining, the inflation adjusted retail sales growth rate would be -0.5% MoM.