The Chicago Fed’s nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in March is finalized at 1.2% MoM (vs first estimate of +0.7% MoM) and 3.7% YoY which would be an acceleration from 3.1% YoY in February.

• This would be the strongest monthly increase in retail sales since January 2023 and would reflect consumers picking up purchasing activity ahead of US tariffs.
• Most of the nowcast is a result from strong transaction data (+81 bps) while Census data (+23 bps) and foot traffic (+13 bps) made smaller contributions.
• The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is -0.4% MoM and -0.2% YoY.
• With prices declining, the inflation adjusted retail sales gain would be 1.6% MoM.