The Chicago Fed’s nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in March is a strong increase of 0.7% MoM which would be the strongest increase since September 2024.

• Strong transaction data is the primary source of the nowcast with Census and foot traffic & sentiment data just behind.
• The annual increase in sales is nowcasted at 3.2% YoY which would be a slight acceleration over 3.1% YoY in February.
• The Chicago Fed nowcasts the retail & food services (ex autos) price index to be down -0.4% MoM in March which would be a -0.2% YoY decline, down from 0.4% YoY in February.
• Thus, with prices falling on the month, inflation adjusted retail sales are nowcasted at 1.1% MoM.