The Chicago Fed’s nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in April is -0.6% MoM and 3.2% YoY, revised down from an initial estimate of -0.2% MoM.

• This would be the second monthly decline in sales in the last four months.
• Most of the nowcast is a result from weak transactions data (-53 bps) and weak foot traffic data (-28 bps) while Census data offsets some of the negativity (+21 bps).
• The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.1% MoM and -0.4% YoY, revised down from 0.2% MoM and -0.3% YoY.
• With prices declining, the inflation adjusted retail sales growth rate would be -0.7% MoM, revised down from the initial estimate of -0.5% MoM.