U.S. new-vehicle sales are forecast at 1.45M units in December 2025 (-7.5% YoY), reflecting a year-end slowdown after a volatile sales pattern.

• Total new-vehicle sales, including retail and non-retail, are projected at 1,454,000 units (-7.5% YoY), or -3.8% YoY on an unadjusted selling-day basis, pointing to softer year-end volumes despite an extra selling day versus last year.

• Total SAAR is expected at 15.9M units, down 1.1M from December 2024, while retail SAAR rises to 13.6M from 12.7M in November, indicating some sequential improvement but weaker YoY momentum.

• Retail sales are forecast at 1,222,800 units (-7.4% YoY), with Q4 retail volumes down -4.8% YoY, contrasting with full-year 2025 retail sales projected up +4.0% YoY on a selling-day-adjusted basis.

• EVs are expected to account for 6.6% of retail sales, down 4.6 ppts YoY, while ICE vehicles rise to 78.1% (+4.6 ppts YoY), showing a pronounced shift away from EV purchases late in the year.

• Average new-vehicle transaction prices are projected at $47,104 (+1.5% YoY), while average monthly finance payments rise to $776 (+$21 YoY), underscoring continued affordability pressures.

• Incentive spending averages $3,433 per vehicle (+$77 YoY), with EV discounts at $11,414 (-$57 YoY) and non-EV incentives at $3,219 (+$425 YoY), reflecting diverging pricing dynamics by powertrain.

• Retail inventory stands at 2.39M units (+11.7% YoY), equal to 70 days of supply, while retailer profit per unit declines to $1,974 (-$112 YoY), indicating improved availability alongside margin compression.