The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose +0.8 pts to 99.0 in November, remaining above its long run average, with stronger real sales expectations driving most of the gain despite a rise in uncertainty among owners.

• Sales expectations strengthened notably, with the net share expecting higher real sales up +9 pts to 15 percent, the largest contributor to the headline increase and a sign of more positive demand expectations.

• Actual nominal sales improved, as the net share reporting higher sales over the past three months rose +4 pts to -9 percent, marking a modest recovery from October’s weaker reading.

• Hiring indicators firmed, with job openings that firms could not fill rising to 33 percent (+1 pt) and hiring plans climbing +4 pts to a net 19 percent, the highest level of the year, indicating continued labor demand even amid difficulty finding qualified workers.

• Labor quality concerns eased, with 21 percent citing it as their top problem (-6 pts), though unfilled openings remain well above the historical average and 50 percent of hiring firms still report few or no qualified applicants.

• Capital spending softened, as 52 percent reported recent outlays (-3 pts) and only 20 percent plan future investment (-3 pts), a historically weak reading consistent with elevated uncertainty about near term capital expenditure decisions.

• Compensation pressures held steady, with a net 26 percent raising pay (unchanged), while compensation plans rose +5 pts to a net 24 percent, suggesting firms still expect upward wage pressure in coming months.

• Price pressures increased materially, with the net share raising selling prices jumping +13 pts to 34 percent, the largest monthly gain on record and the highest level since March 2023, pointing to renewed inflation concerns linked partly to supply chain disruptions.

• Credit conditions showed mild improvement, as the average short term loan rate declined to 7.9 percent (-0.8 pts), while only a net 4 percent reported their last loan was harder to obtain (-1 pt), indicating no major deterioration in access to financing.

• Business condition expectations weakened, with the net share expecting better conditions falling -5 pts to 15 percent, extending a broader decline that has persisted throughout the year despite solid overall economic performance.