Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations: October 2025

Business inflation expectations held steady at 2.3% in October 2025, marking the fourth consecutive month of stability and reflecting continued moderation in firms’ price outlooks.

  • Firms’ year-ahead inflation expectations remained unchanged at 2.3%, consistent with recent readings since July.

  • Year-over-year unit cost growth edged up slightly to 2.4%, continuing a stable range observed through Q2.

  • Sales levels and profit margins “compared to normal” improved, suggesting modest strengthening in business conditions.

  • Sales levels rose across firm sizes, increasing +1.3 ppt for small firms and +4 ppt for medium firms, while large firms reported stable sales.

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