The Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations survey showed year-ahead unit cost expectations unchanged at 2.3% in September 2025, reflecting stability after a notable decline from the 2022 peak.

• Year-ahead unit cost expectations remain above the 2017–2019 pre-pandemic average of 2.0%, though uncertainty around these expectations has eased since peaking in July.

• Long-run unit cost expectations (5–10 years ahead) were steady at 2.8%, showing little change from earlier in 2025.

• Reported sales levels and profit margins “compared to normal” both declined, suggesting softer business conditions.

• Year-over-year unit cost growth was stable at 2.3%, indicating no significant change in realized cost pressures.

• Around half of firms indicated they would raise prices if competitors increased theirs, regardless of context.

• When competitor pricing was linked to cost increases, about 7 percentage points more firms reported they would also raise prices, highlighting sensitivity to cost-driven dynamics.