Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations: November 2025

Business inflation expectations declined to 2.2% in November (from 2.3% in October), marking the lowest reading since January 2025 and signaling further easing in firms’ price outlooks.

  • Year-over-year unit cost growth fell to 2.3% (down from 2.4% previously), indicating slightly slower realized cost pressures compared with prior months.

  • Firms reported a median 3.0% price increase over the past 12 months and a median 3.0% expected price increase over the next 12 months, with both realized and expected price growth edging lower from August.

  • Year-ahead unit cost expectations decreased to 2.2%, continuing a notable decline from the 3.8% peak in April 2022, though still somewhat above the 2.0% prepandemic average.

  • Sales levels and profit margins “compared to normal” improved, suggesting slightly better business conditions.

  • Firms’ unit cost uncertainty continued to ease, reflecting greater clarity around cost trends relative to midyear.

  • Special-question results showed that productivity concerns were a primary reason dismissals were not classified as temporary, and smaller firms were more likely than larger firms to use temporary dismissals.

Attachments