US new-vehicle sales are projected at 1.23 million units in September 2025 (+0.1% YoY; SAAR: 16.2 million), with retail sales at 1.03 million (+0.4% YoY), reflecting steady demand supported by EV purchases ahead of tax credit expiration.

• EVs are expected to account for 12.2% of retail sales (+2.6 ppt YoY), with selling-day adjusted EV sales up +27.5% YoY, while non-EV sales declined -2.5% YoY.

• ICE vehicles’ share is projected at 71.7% (-4.9 ppt YoY), while HEVs rise to 12.4% (+0.7 ppt YoY) and PHEVs to 2.6% (+0.5 ppt YoY).

• Fleet sales are expected at 200,819 units (-1.5% YoY), representing 16.3% of total sales (-0.3 ppt YoY).

• Average retail transaction price is projected at $45,795 (+2.9% YoY), while incentive spending per vehicle is $3,116 (6.1% of MSRP, -0.2 ppt YoY).

• Average monthly finance payments reached $756 (+$21 YoY), the highest on record for September, with 84-month loan terms at 11.0% of sales (+1.5 ppt YoY).

• Retail inventory is estimated at 2.21 million units (+17.5% YoY), with industry days’ supply at 60 (vs 54 a year ago).

• Used-vehicle prices are trending at $29,668 (+$739 YoY), pushing average trade-in equity to $8,430 (+$534 YoY), though negative equity among trade-ins rose to 25.9% (+1.5 ppt YoY).

• Total consumer spending on new vehicles is forecast at $45 billion (+8.5% YoY), the second-highest September on record, while aggregate retailer profit is expected at $2.2 billion (+6.0% YoY).