US new-vehicle sales are projected to rise +8.2% YoY in August 2025 to 1.48 million units (SAAR: 16.1M), while retail sales are expected to increase +7.8% YoY to 1.28 million units, supported by accelerated EV demand ahead of expiring tax credits.

• EV retail share is expected at 12.0% (vs 9.5% Aug 2024), while ICE vehicle share falls to 72.2% (-5.6 pp YoY); hybrids (HEV +2.0 pp, PHEV +0.6 pp) also gained share.

• Fleet sales are forecast at 199,854 units (+11.2% YoY), making up 13.5% of total sales (+0.4 pp YoY).

• The average transaction price is expected at $44,750, up +2.2% YoY, while average incentive spending is $3,105 per unit (+$38 YoY), equal to 6.2% of MSRP (-0.1 pp YoY).

• Retail inventory stands at 2.10M units (+18.6% YoY), with days’ supply rising to 58 (vs 51 a year ago); trucks/SUVs make up 82.0% of retail sales (+2.1 pp YoY).

• Consumers are set to spend $54.6B on new vehicles (+5.3% YoY), with average monthly finance payments at $743 (+$13 YoY) and interest rates at 6.40% (-38 bps YoY).