US new-vehicle retail sales are projected to rise 4.1% YoY in July 2025 to 1.16 million units (SAAR: 13.4 million), while total sales are expected to increase 3.2% YoY to 1.38 million units (SAAR: 16.4 million).

• Consumers are projected to spend a record $49.8 billion on new vehicles in July, up 11.3% YoY, with the average transaction price up 2.1% YoY to $45,063.
• Fleet sales are expected to fall -0.8% YoY to 221k units, accounting for 16.0% of total sales (down from 20.0%).
• EVs are projected to make up 10.9% of retail sales (+1.6 pp YoY), while ICE vehicle share declines to 74.0% (-3.7 pp YoY).
• Incentive spending is expected to average $3,051 per unit (+$52 YoY), but as a % of MSRP, incentives slipped -0.1 pp to 6.1%.
• Average monthly finance payments rose to $742 (+$12 YoY), while the average interest rate dipped 30 bps to 6.54%.