US new-vehicle sales are projected to rise 2.5% YoY in June 2025 to 1.25 million units (SAAR: 15.0 million), while retail sales are up 6.7% YoY to 1.02 million (SAAR: 12.4 million), despite fewer selling days and post-tariff payback effects.

• Consumers are expected to spend $45.0 billion on new vehicles in June, up 4.3% YoY, with the average transaction price at $46,233 (+3.1% YoY).
• Fleet sales are projected to fall -12.7% YoY to 231k, making up 18.5% of total sales (down from 21.7%).
• EVs are expected to make up 8.7% of retail sales (down -1.6 pp YoY), while ICE vehicles remain dominant at 75.8%.
• Average incentive spending is up to $2,727 (+$39 YoY), but as a % of MSRP, incentives declined -0.1 pp to 5.4%.
• Retail inventory rose 22.9% YoY to 2.16 million units; average days’ supply increased to 54 (from 49 last year).