US new-vehicle retail sales are projected to rise 1.1% YoY in May 2025 to 1,235,700 units, while total sales are flat YoY at 1,489,800 units; the SAAR for total sales is expected at 15.6 million, slightly down from 15.7 million last May.

• Consumers are set to spend a record $53.8 billion on new vehicles in May (+7.0% YoY), with the average retail transaction price at $45,462 (+$649 YoY, but down -$592 from April).
• Average monthly loan payments are expected at $748 (+$21 YoY), with the average interest rate at 6.93% (-10 bps YoY).
• Fleet sales are projected to decline -7.0% YoY, making up 17.1% of total sales (down from 18.3%).
• Electrified vehicles (HEV, PHEV, EV) make up 25% of retail sales, with HEVs rising to 14.8% share (+4.3 pp YoY) and EVs falling slightly to 8.1% (-0.4 pp).
• Inventory levels are up 23.0% YoY to 2.13 million units; days of supply stands at 57 days (+7 YoY).