The EIA’s July 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook raised its 2025 forecast for Brent crude and U.S. ethane exports while cutting natural gas and Henry Hub price forecasts due to higher storage levels and policy changes.

• Brent crude is now forecast to average $69/bbl in 2025 (+4.4% vs prior), driven by a geopolitical risk premium from rising tensions over Iran.
• U.S. ethane net export forecasts jumped to 0.51 mb/d for 2025 and 0.64 mb/d for 2026 following the removal of license restrictions on exports to China.
• The Henry Hub spot price forecast was revised down -8.7% to $3.70/MMBtu for 2025 and -9.6% to $4.40 for 2026 amid ample gas storage.
• U.S. natural gas inventories are now expected to total 3,290 bcf in 2025, up 6.6% from last month’s forecast, while 2026 inventories were revised down -1.9% to 2,830 bcf.
• The crude oil production forecast fell slightly from 13.42 mil b/d to 13.37 mil b/d in 2025, with falling prices expected to reduce drilling activity.