The EIA’s June 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook lowered its forecast for U.S. ethane exports and production, while projecting rising global oil inventories and electricity demand through 2026.

• U.S. ethane net export forecasts were cut -24.2% for 2025 and -51.1% for 2026 following license denials for exports to China; production was revised down -4.2% and -12.1%, respectively.
• Global oil inventory builds were revised up to +0.8 million b/d in 2025 (vs +0.4 prev), and down to +0.6 million b/d in 2026 (vs +0.8 prev).
• Brent crude prices are expected to average $61/b by year-end 2025 and $59/b in 2026 amid rising inventories.
• U.S. commercial electricity sales are now forecast to rise 3% in 2025 and 5% in 2026, led by data center demand in ERCOT and PJM.
• U.S. secondary coal inventories were revised down to 120 million short tons in 2025 (-2.7%) and 105 million in 2026 (-8.7%) as more coal is expected to be used in power generation.