The EIA’s May 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook includes key downward revisions to economic growth and global oil balances, while coal inventories and production expectations were raised.

• Global oil inventory builds were revised lower by -0.1 million b/d for 2025 but raised by +0.1 million b/d for 2026, reflecting shifting supply-demand balances.
• The EIA’s global liquid fuels production forecast of increases between 1.3 and 1.4 million b/d in 2025 and 2026 were unchanged as the models were made before OPEC+ announced production increases on May 3rd.
• U.S. secondary coal inventory forecasts increased to 121 million short tons in 2025 (+11.6%) and 116 million short tons in 2026 (+16.5%), with higher production also expected.
• U.S. coal production was revised up to 506 million short tons in 2025 and 475 million in 2026, driven by higher expected use in power generation.
• U.S. GDP growth was revised down to 1.5% for 2025 (from 2.0%) and 1.6% for 2026 (from 2.0%) amid weaker macroeconomic expectations under new trade policy assumptions.
• World GDP was revised down -0.3 ppts to 2.8% for 2025 and -0.4 ppts to 2.8% for 2026 due to global trade friction and slower economic momentum.