Notable forecast changes in the April 2025 edition of the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook:

• The EIA has dropped its forecast for Brent crude oil prices significantly, by -8.6% for 2025 and by -10.2% for 2026, as it sees uncertainty around global oil demand growth (downside risks) and a potential for more supply from OPEC+ in the coming months.
• The recent updates to trade policy have caused the EIA to see significantly lower global oil demand growth to 0.9 million b/d for 2025 (down -0.4 million b/d) and to 1.0 million b/d for 2026 (down -0.1 million b/d).
• The EIA sees propane inventories rising more than previously expected and spot prices declining more than previously expected. The EIA expects that China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods will have the largest effect on propane. China is major importer of U.S. propane, and tariffs will likely limit China’s demand for U.S. propane exports.
• Like propane, the EIA expects coal exports to China to be lower due to retaliatory tariffs. It also upgraded its coal production forecast slightly as there was strong-than-expected output in March. As a result of these dynamics, the April 2025 coal inventory forecasts compared to the March 2025 forecasts are 6.1% higher in 2025 and 24.1% higher in 2026.
• The EIA upgrades its estimates of LNG exports for 2025 as two new LNG export facilities ramp up operations. Plaquemines LNG Phase 1, which started operations late last year, has been ramping up exports more quickly than the EIA initially forecasted.