The EIA’s August 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook lowered its Brent crude forecast for 2025 to $67/bbl (-2.4% vs prior) and for 2026 to $51/bbl (-12.0%), citing larger global inventory builds from accelerated OPEC+ production increases.

• Global oil inventory builds are now seen at +1.6 mb/d in 2025 (+0.6 mb/d vs prior) and +1.4 mb/d in 2026 (+0.3 mb/d).
• OPEC+ crude output was revised up to 43.7 mb/d in 2025 (+1.0%) and 44.2 mb/d in 2026 (+0.9%).
• U.S. crude production was nudged to 13.4 mb/d in 2025 (+0.3%) but trimmed to 13.3 mb/d in 2026 (-0.7%) as lower prices curb drilling.
• U.S. crude inventories are now expected at 433 mb in 2025 (+6.9% vs prior) and 448 mb in 2026 (+11.9%).
• Retail gasoline prices are forecast to average <$2.90/gal in 2026 (-6% YoY), while distillate inventories are set to remain at multi-decade lows due to strong export demand and limited refinery capacity.