Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators

Data Employment

Source: Chicago Fed
Source Link: https://www.chicagofed.org/
Frequency: Semimonthly
Next Release(s): April 30th, 2026 8:30 AM

Latest Updates

Probability of Unemployment Rate Change (Feb -> Mar)	Advance	Final
Up (+0.1 ppts or more)	53.1%	61.3%
No Change	26.2%	22.3%
Down (-0.1 ppts or less)	20.6%	16.5%

chicago-fed-labor-market-indicators-march-2026-(final-estimate).zip

Probability of Unemployment Rate Change (Feb -> Mar)	Advance	Final
Up (+0.1 ppts or more)	53.1%
No Change	26.2%
Down (-0.1 ppts or less)	20.6%

chicago-fed-labor-market-indicators-march-2026-(advance-estimate).zip

Probability of Unemployment Rate Change (Jan -> Feb)	Advance	Final
Up (+0.1 ppts or more)	30.4%	26.6%
No Change	28.4%	27.9%
Down (-0.1 ppts or less)	41.3%	45.4%

Probability of Unemployment Rate Change (Jan -> Feb)	Advance	Final
Up (+0.1 ppts or more)	30.4%
No Change	28.4%
Down (-0.1 ppts or less)	41.3%

Probability of Unemployment Rate Change (Dec -> Jan)	Advance	Final
Up (+0.1 ppts or more)	23.5%	25.4%
No Change	27.1%	27.7%
Down (-0.1 ppts or less)	49.4%	46.9%

Probability of Unemployment Rate Change (Dec -> Jan)	Advance	Final
Up (+0.1 ppts or more)	23.5%
No Change	27.1%
Down (-0.1 ppts or less)	49.4%

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Probability of Unemployment Rate Change (Nov -> Dec)	Advance	Final
Up (+0.1 ppts or more)	49.1%	47.1%
No Change	27.2%	27.5%
Down (-0.1 ppts or less)	23.6%	25.4%

Probability of Unemployment Rate Change (Nov -> Dec)	Advance	Final
Up (+0.1 ppts or more)	49.1%
No Change	27.2%
Down (-0.1 ppts or less)	23.6%

Probability of Unemployment Rate Change (Oct -> Nov)	Advance	Final
Up (+0.2 ppts or more)	34.6%	34.3%
Little to No Change (-0.1 pts, +0.1 ppts)	41.6%	41.7%
Down (-0.2 ppts or less)	23.7%	24.1%