The Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast for May is 4.34%, little changed from the BLS value for the previous month. This forecast is a product of small, offsetting contributions from hiring and layoffs – with both declining slightly – as measured by the Chicago Fed’s Hiring Rate for Unemployed Workers and the Chicago Fed’s Layoffs and Other Separations Rate.

The Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast is a median estimate of the unrounded BLS unemployment rate from a statistical model. The BLS follows the convention of reporting the official unemployment rate rounded to the nearest tenth. Applying this same convention to the Chicago Fed model, we can predict the likely direction of change in the official BLS unemployment rate. The current forecast implies 27% odds of a decrease, 27% odds of no change, and 46% odds of an increase.