The Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast for May is 4.32%, down slightly from the BLS value for the previous month (4.34%). This forecast is mostly a product of a small decline in separations as measured by the Chicago Fed’s Layoffs and Other Separations Rate.

The Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast is a median estimate of the unrounded BLS unemployment rate from a statistical model. The BLS follows the convention of reporting the official unemployment rate rounded to the nearest tenth. Applying this same convention to the Chicago Fed model, we can predict the likely direction of change in the official BLS unemployment rate. The current forecast implies 30% odds of a decrease, 28% odds of no change, and 42% odds of an increase.