Merchandise trade grew 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and 3.6% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025 on a seasonally-adjusted volume basis. By comparison, the dollar value of trade was up 7.5% year-on-year in the same period, highlighting a widening gap between growth in nominal and real terms (see Chart 1). Stronger growth in value terms than in volume terms was partly due to currency depreciation, as the US dollar fell 1.9% year-on-year in value against a broad basket of currencies in the third quarter. Dollar depreciation tends to inflate the dollar value of trade flows denominated in other currencies, for example intra-EU trade.

• For the year through September 2025, merchandise trade volume was up 4.5% compared to the same period in 2024. This is stronger than the headline forecast of 2.5% for 2025 in the WTO Secretariat's most recent forecast from last October. In the same January-September period, the value of merchandise trade was up 6.5% year-on-year. Although a weaker dollar contributed to merchandise trade growth in value terms, import frontloading ahead of expected tariff hikes and surging demand for AI-related goods were more significant factors.
• In the first three quarters of 2025, trade in AI-related goods, such as chips, semiconductors and data transmission equipment - most of which are exempted from the new tariffs - increased almost 20% year-on-year in value terms. While AI-related goods made up around 15% of world merchandise trade in the first three quarters of 2025, they accounted for 42% of year-on-year merchandise trade growth during the period.
• Trade in non-AI goods also continued to expand, up 4.4% year-on-year in value terms in the first three quarters of 2025. A key driver was the skyrocketing price of gold, which serves as a safe-haven investment in times of economic uncertainty. Medicines and pharmaceuticals, particularly anti-obesity drugs and vaccine inputs, also contributed to the increase, particularly in the first quarter, as imports surged in North America ahead of expected tariff hikes.
• In the first nine months of 2025, Asia recorded the strongest year-on-year growth in export volumes (9.5%), followed by Africa (6.1%) and South and Central America and the Caribbean (5.7%). Exports also increased in the Middle East (5.3%) and North America (2.3%) but declined slightly in Europe (-0.3%) and moderately in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including certain associate and former members states (-1.7%) (see Chart 2).
• On the import side, the fastest growth was observed in South and Central America and the Caribbean (13.2%) and Africa (12.7%), more than twice the pace seen in the Middle East (6.2%) and Asia (6.0%). North American imports grew by an average of 5.4%, while Europe recorded more modest growth of 2.4%. The weakest import performance was in the CIS, at just 0.5%.

The volume of world merchandise trade was up 4.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, growing at a faster rate than expected. Several factors contributed to this robust trade expansion, including frontloading of imports in North America in anticipation of higher tariffs, favourable macroeconomic conditions (e.g. disinflation, supportive fiscal policies, strong growth in emerging markets) and a surge in demand for AI-related goods.

• WTO economists’ forecast for world merchandise trade volume growth in 2025 has risen to 2.4% (up from the estimate of 0.9% in the interim outlook in August) while the outlook for 2026 has deteriorated to 0.5% (down from the August estimate of 1.8%).
• The forecast for services trade has also been updated, with commercial services export volume now expected to grow 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, up slightly from the previous estimates last April.
• It is difficult to determine how much of the boost to trade in the first half of the year was due to macroeconomic “push” factors but the April edition of Global Trade Outlook and Statistics noted that, if it were not for higher tariffs and rising policy uncertainty, macroeconomic conditions were expected to be supportive of trade growth in 2025.
• Prospects for the second half of 2025 and 2026 are less optimistic. With higher tariffs now in place and trade policy still highly uncertain, frontloading of purchases is expected to unwind as accumulated inventories are drawn down and as GDP growth slows. Possible signs of weakness in trade and manufacturing output have been observed in developed economies, including reduced business and consumer confidence and slower growth in employment and incomes.
• As a result, the new forecast indicates stronger trade growth in 2025 and weaker trade growth in 2026. For 2025 and 2026 combined the forecast is slightly stronger in the current forecast (+2.9%) than in the previous one (+2.3%).
• The US$ value of world merchandise trade was up 6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. In contrast to goods, year-on-year growth in commercial services trade slowed to 5% in the first quarter of this year from 10% in the final quarter of last year but appears to have bounced back to 9% in the second quarter based on preliminary data.

The volume of world merchandise trade rose 3.6% QoQ and 5.3% YoY in Q1 2025 as imports surged in North America in anticipation of higher tariffs in the United States.

• Merchandise trade volume growth in the first quarter was stronger than the WTO’s most recent forecast, but WTO economists expect the pace of expansion to slow later in the year as fully stocked inventories and higher tariffs weigh on import demand.
• A variety of trade agreements and trade measures have nudged the adjusted forecast up and down slightly, but as of mid-June merchandise trade growth for the year was still expected to be basically flat at 0.1%.

Under current conditions, the volume of world merchandise trade is likely to fall by 0.2% in 2025. The decline is expected to be particularly steep in North America, where exports are forecasted to drop by 12.6%.

• However, severe downside risks exist, including the application of “reciprocal” tariffs and broader spillover of policy uncertainty, which could lead to an even sharper decline of 1.5% in global goods trade and hurt export-oriented least-developed countries.
• The report contains for the first time a forecast for services trade to complement its projections for merchandise trade. The volume of services trade is forecasted to grow by 4.0% in 2025, around 1 percentage point less than expected.