The volume of world merchandise trade rose 3.6% QoQ and 5.3% YoY in Q1 2025 as imports surged in North America in anticipation of higher tariffs in the United States.

• Merchandise trade volume growth in the first quarter was stronger than the WTO’s most recent forecast, but WTO economists expect the pace of expansion to slow later in the year as fully stocked inventories and higher tariffs weigh on import demand.
• A variety of trade agreements and trade measures have nudged the adjusted forecast up and down slightly, but as of mid-June merchandise trade growth for the year was still expected to be basically flat at 0.1%.