The volume of world merchandise trade was up 4.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, growing at a faster rate than expected. Several factors contributed to this robust trade expansion, including frontloading of imports in North America in anticipation of higher tariffs, favourable macroeconomic conditions (e.g. disinflation, supportive fiscal policies, strong growth in emerging markets) and a surge in demand for AI-related goods.

• WTO economists’ forecast for world merchandise trade volume growth in 2025 has risen to 2.4% (up from the estimate of 0.9% in the interim outlook in August) while the outlook for 2026 has deteriorated to 0.5% (down from the August estimate of 1.8%).
• The forecast for services trade has also been updated, with commercial services export volume now expected to grow 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, up slightly from the previous estimates last April.
• It is difficult to determine how much of the boost to trade in the first half of the year was due to macroeconomic “push” factors but the April edition of Global Trade Outlook and Statistics noted that, if it were not for higher tariffs and rising policy uncertainty, macroeconomic conditions were expected to be supportive of trade growth in 2025.
• Prospects for the second half of 2025 and 2026 are less optimistic. With higher tariffs now in place and trade policy still highly uncertain, frontloading of purchases is expected to unwind as accumulated inventories are drawn down and as GDP growth slows. Possible signs of weakness in trade and manufacturing output have been observed in developed economies, including reduced business and consumer confidence and slower growth in employment and incomes.
• As a result, the new forecast indicates stronger trade growth in 2025 and weaker trade growth in 2026. For 2025 and 2026 combined the forecast is slightly stronger in the current forecast (+2.9%) than in the previous one (+2.3%).
• The US$ value of world merchandise trade was up 6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. In contrast to goods, year-on-year growth in commercial services trade slowed to 5% in the first quarter of this year from 10% in the final quarter of last year but appears to have bounced back to 9% in the second quarter based on preliminary data.