World oil supply plunged by 1.2 mb/d in January to 106.6 mb/d, as severe winter weather disrupted North American operations, while outages and export constraints curtailed Kazakh, Russian and Venezuelan flows. Following gains of nearly 3.1 mb/d in 2025, world oil output is now forecast to rise by 2.4 mb/d in 2026, to 108.6 mb/d, with growth roughly evenly split between non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ producers.

Global refinery crude throughputs dropped from an all-time high of 86.3 mb/d in December to 85.7 mb/d in January, as the start of maintenance and lower margins impacted activity. Crude runs are forecast to increase by an average 790 kb/d to 84.6 mb/d in 2026, led by non-OECD regions, compared with an increase of almost 1 mb/d in 2025. Margins fell further in January, as December’s resurgent runs eased product market tightness.

Observed global oil inventories rose by 37 mb in December, taking total 2025 stocks builds to 477 mb, or 1.3 mb/d. Chinese crude oil stocks built by 111 mb last year, while oil on water swelled by 248 mb, of which sanctioned oil accounted for 72%. OECD industry stocks rose by a counter-seasonal 3.9 mb in December, to surpass its five-year average for the first time since 2021. Preliminary data show global stocks surged by a further 49 mb in January.

Benchmark oil prices increased steadily in January, with North Sea Dated crude rising $10/bbl over the month. Escalating geopolitical tensions, snow storms and extreme temperatures in North America, and Kazakh supply disruptions sparked the reversal to a bullish market. At the time of writing, Dated was trading around $73/bbl, with oil markets on tenterhooks about uncertain developments in the Persian Gulf.

Global oil demand growth is forecast to average 930 kb/d in 2026, up from 850 kb/d in 2025, reflecting a normalisation of economic conditions after last year’s tariff turmoil and lower oil prices than a year ago. A recovery in petrochemical feedstocks demand will be partially offset by a continued slowdown in gasoline gains. Non-OECD countries will once again account for all of the growth in 2026.

Global oil supply fell by 350 kb/d m-o-m to 107.4 mb/d in December, 1.6 mb/d below September’s record high. Lower output from Kazakhstan and a number of Middle Eastern OPEC producers was partly offset by a sharp rebound in Russian production. World oil supply is now projected to rise by 2.5 mb/d this year to 108.7 mb/d, following an increase of 3 mb/d in 2025. Non-OPEC+ accounts for 1.8 mb/d of the gains in 2025 and 1.3 mb/d in 2026.

Global refinery crude throughputs surged by 2 mb/d to 85.7 mb/d in December, ahead of 1Q26 seasonal maintenance in the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Crude runs are forecast to average 84.6 mb/d for 2026, with annual growth of 770 kb/d slightly below 2025’s 930 kb/d pace. Refining margins slumped over the course of December, led by weaker profitability in Europe as middle distillate cracks halved from November’s highs.

Global observed stocks surged by 75.3 mb in November 2025, or 2.5 mb/d, with crude oil accounting for 96% of the increase, mostly onshore. OECD industry stocks were up by 7.3 mb to 2 838 mb, largely in line with the five-year average level. Total observed oil inventories were 433 mb higher than at the start of 2025, increasing by 1.3 mb/d on average. Preliminary data showed global inventories rose further in December, led by builds in products.

Benchmark crude oil prices jumped by about $6/bbl at the start of the new year in the wake of geopolitical developments in Iran and Venezuela, but eased by mid-month as tensions moderated. North Sea Dated fell by $0.99/bbl m-o-m in December to an average $62.64/bbl, as markets remained well supplied. This was the benchmark’s sixth consecutive monthly decline, with prices hitting a low of $60.07/bbl mid-month – the weakest since early 2021.

World oil demand growth rebounded to 920 kb/d in 3Q25, mainly due to stronger deliveries in China. The third-quarter increase was more than double 2Q25’s 430 kb/d y-o-y expansion, as the macroeconomic picture broadly improved on easing trade tensions. Worldwide 2025 gains of 790 kb/d y-o-y are led by the United States, China and Nigeria, up by about 120 kb/d y-o-y each. Global growth will maintain this rate in 2026, at 770 kb/d y-o-y.

The relentless upturn in global oil supply paused in October at 108.2 mb/d, with OPEC+ leading a 440 kb/d monthly decline. Global oil supply was nevertheless up by a massive 6.2 mb/d since January, with gains divided evenly between non-OPEC+ and OPEC+. World oil supply is set to rise by 3.1 mb/d in 2025 and 2.5 mb/d in 2026 on average to reach 108.7 mb/d. Non-OPEC+ accounts for 1.7 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d of the growth, respectively.

A slew of unplanned outages, scheduled maintenance and continued disruptions to Russia’s downstream operations, pushed refinery margins to a two-year peak in Europe and Asia in early November. Global refinery runs slumped by 2.9 mb/d m-o-m to 81.5 mb/d in October but are set to increase sharply towards year-end. Runs are forecast to rise by 710 kb/d in 2025 and 510 kb/d next year, to 83.6 mb/d and 84.1 mb/d, respectively.

Global observed oil inventories surged by 77.7 mb, or 2.6 mb/d, in September reaching the highest level since July 2021. Oil on water was up by a hefty 80 mb, while OECD stocks rose by a modest 5 mb and non-OECD drew by 7 mb. Over the first nine months of the year, observable inventories have risen by 313 mb, or 1.15 mb/d on average. Preliminary October data showed global stocks increased further, led by additional gains in oil on water.

North Sea Dated crude fell by around $3/bbl m-o-m to $65/bbl in October. This was the grade’s fourth consecutive monthly decline amid concerns about weak fundamentals and looming oversupply. Dated barely held above $60/bbl mid-month – a four-year low – before rebounding by $5/bbl on the view that Washington’s sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil may curtail Russian oil flows. At the time of writing, Dated was trading around $62/bbl.

Global oil demand rose by 750 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q25, as petrochemical feedstocks led a rebound from 2Q25’s tariff-afflicted 420 kb/d pace. Still, oil use will remain subdued over the remainder of 2025 and in 2026, resulting in annual gains forecast at around 700 kb/d in both years. This is well below historical trend, as a harsher macro climate and transport electrification make for a sharp deceleration in oil consumption growth.

Total global oil supply rose by 760 kb/d m-o-m, to 108 mb/d in September, as OPEC+ production surged by 1 mb/d led by the Middle East. World oil supply is on track to rise by 3 mb/d to 106.1 mb/d this year and 2.4 mb/d next year. Non-OPEC+ adds 1.6 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively, led by the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Argentina. OPEC+ adds 1.4 mb/d in 2025 and 1.2 mb/d next year based on the current production agreement.

Global crude runs will reach a seasonal low of 81.6 mb/d in October, nearly 4 mb/d below July’s record level, as maintenance and escalating attacks on Russian infrastructure cut activity. Refinery runs will rise by 600 kb/d in 2025 and 460 kb/d in 2026, to 83.5 mb/d and 84 mb/d, respectively. Refining margins increased across the board in September, led by improved diesel and jet fuel cracks following the disruption to Russian refining and exports.

Global observed inventories rose by a further 17.7 mb in August to a four-year high of 7 909 mb, as a 36.2 mb build in products was partly offset by an 18.5 mb decline in global crude, NGLs and feedstocks. OECD total inventories rose by 22 mb, non-OECD by 4 mb, supported by rising Chinese crude inventories, while oil on water dropped 8 mb. Preliminary data for September show sharply higher oil stocks, led by a 102 mb build in oil on water.

In calm trading, benchmark crude prices were little changed in September, as a looming supply surplus dampened the bullish impact of heightened Ukraine tensions and fresh sanctions against Russia and Iran. Price volatility continued to languish at historical lows. At the time of writing, ICE Brent futures were trading at around $64/bbl – down approximately $11/bbl year-to-date.