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Global oil demand rose by 750 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q25, as petrochemical feedstocks led a rebound from 2Q25’s tariff-afflicted 420 kb/d pace. Still, oil use will remain subdued over the remainder of 2025 and in 2026, resulting in annual gains forecast at around 700 kb/d in both years. This is well below historical trend, as a harsher macro climate and transport electrification make for a sharp deceleration in oil consumption growth.
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Total global oil supply rose by 760 kb/d m-o-m, to 108 mb/d in September, as OPEC+ production surged by 1 mb/d led by the Middle East. World oil supply is on track to rise by 3 mb/d to 106.1 mb/d this year and 2.4 mb/d next year. Non-OPEC+ adds 1.6 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively, led by the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Argentina. OPEC+ adds 1.4 mb/d in 2025 and 1.2 mb/d next year based on the current production agreement.
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Global crude runs will reach a seasonal low of 81.6 mb/d in October, nearly 4 mb/d below July’s record level, as maintenance and escalating attacks on Russian infrastructure cut activity. Refinery runs will rise by 600 kb/d in 2025 and 460 kb/d in 2026, to 83.5 mb/d and 84 mb/d, respectively. Refining margins increased across the board in September, led by improved diesel and jet fuel cracks following the disruption to Russian refining and exports.
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Global observed inventories rose by a further 17.7 mb in August to a four-year high of 7 909 mb, as a 36.2 mb build in products was partly offset by an 18.5 mb decline in global crude, NGLs and feedstocks. OECD total inventories rose by 22 mb, non-OECD by 4 mb, supported by rising Chinese crude inventories, while oil on water dropped 8 mb. Preliminary data for September show sharply higher oil stocks, led by a 102 mb build in oil on water.
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In calm trading, benchmark crude prices were little changed in September, as a looming supply surplus dampened the bullish impact of heightened Ukraine tensions and fresh sanctions against Russia and Iran. Price volatility continued to languish at historical lows. At the time of writing, ICE Brent futures were trading at around $64/bbl – down approximately $11/bbl year-to-date.