Global oil demand is set to rise by 830 kb/d in 2025 amid an improving macroeconomic and trade outlook. These brighter prospects extend to our 2026 forecast, which we have upgraded by 90 kb/d, to 860 kb/d y-o-y. Gasoil and jet/kerosene account for half of this year’s gains, with fuel oil losing ground to natural gas and solar in power generation. In 2026 petrochemical feedstocks will dominate growth, with their share rising to more than 60% from 40% in 2025.
Global oil supply fell by 610 kb/d in November, extending the decline from September’s record of 109 mb/d to 1.5 mb/d. OPEC+ accounted for over three-quarters of the total decrease, led by sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela. Russian oil exports declined by 420 kb/d in November, which combined with weaker prices, slashed revenues to $11 billion, $3.6 billion below a year ago. Global oil supply growth has been cut by 100 kb/d to 3 mb/d for 2025 and by 20 kb/d for 2026 to 2.4 mb/d, to 106.2 mb/d and 108.6 mb/d, respectively.
After weathering significant unplanned refinery outages in November, tightness in refined product markets has eased, but sanctions in 1Q26 will provide fresh challenges. The stark contrast between surging crude supplies and unexpectedly tight product markets has pushed refinery margins back to levels last seen in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Runs forecasts for 2026 have been increased to 84.4 mb/d, with growth raised to 750 kb/d.
Global observed inventories rose to four-year highs in October, at 8 030 mb. Stock builds averaged 1.2 mb/d during the first ten months of the year. October saw a 42 mb build (+1.4 mb/d), led by higher oil on water (+83 mb), while on-land stocks declined by 41 mb, led by a 26 mb contraction in the OECD. Preliminary data for November indicates a further increase of global stocks, largely due to higher non-OECD on-land crude.
North Sea Dated crude fell by about $1/bbl on average m-o-m, to $63.63/bbl in November, its fifth consecutive monthly decline and longest losing streak in 11 years. Near-record oil on water, soft crude fundamentals and low volatility pinned prices near four-year lows around $63/bbl despite tightening sanctions and strong diesel cracks.
