Highlights

• Global oil demand is forecast to rise by 850 kb/d in 2026, up from 770 kb/d last year. As in 2025, non‑OECD economies will account for the entire increase, with China taking the lead on a country level. Petrochemical feedstock products will represent more than half of this year’s gains, compared with only a third in 2025 when transport fuels dominated growth.

• World oil supply plunged by 1.2 mb/d in January to 106.6 mb/d, as severe winter weather disrupted North American operations, while outages and export constraints curtailed Kazakh, Russian and Venezuelan flows. Following gains of nearly 3.1 mb/d in 2025, world oil output is now forecast to rise by 2.4 mb/d in 2026, to 108.6 mb/d, with growth roughly evenly split between non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ producers.

• Global refinery crude throughputs dropped from an all-time high of 86.3 mb/d in December to 85.7 mb/d in January, as the start of maintenance and lower margins impacted activity. Crude runs are forecast to increase by an average 790 kb/d to 84.6 mb/d in 2026, led by non-OECD regions, compared with an increase of almost 1 mb/d in 2025. Margins fell further in January, as December’s resurgent runs eased product market tightness.

• Observed global oil inventories rose by 37 mb in December, taking total 2025 stocks builds to 477 mb, or 1.3 mb/d. Chinese crude oil stocks built by 111 mb last year, while oil on water swelled by 248 mb, of which sanctioned oil accounted for 72%. OECD industry stocks rose by a counter-seasonal 3.9 mb in December, to surpass its five-year average for the first time since 2021. Preliminary data show global stocks surged by a further 49 mb in January.

• Benchmark oil prices increased steadily in January, with North Sea Dated crude rising $10/bbl over the month. Escalating geopolitical tensions, snow storms and extreme temperatures in North America, and Kazakh supply disruptions sparked the reversal to a bullish market. At the time of writing, Dated was trading around $73/bbl, with oil markets on tenterhooks about uncertain developments in the Persian Gulf.