The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) rose to 107.71 in July from a revised 106.74 in June (+0.97 pts MoM), rebounding after two monthly declines and signaling continued, though modest, labor market resilience.

• The ETI increased to 107.71 (+0.97 pts MoM), reversing declines in May and June. The index remained just +0.6% above its level one year earlier, suggesting payroll growth is likely to stay modest in the coming months.

• The largest positive contribution came from the share of small firms reporting positions they were unable to fill, which rose to 36% (+4 ppts MoM), its highest level since June 2025, indicating stronger hiring demand among small businesses.

• Initial unemployment claims declined in July to their lowest level since September 2022, providing the second-largest positive contribution and signaling that layoffs remained limited.

• Job openings were estimated to increase by +168,000 to 7.53 million, while real manufacturing and trade sales were estimated to rise +0.2%, both contributing positively to the index and pointing to continued labor demand and economic activity.

• The share of consumers reporting that jobs were "hard to get" declined to 21.5% from 21.7% in June, indicating a modest improvement in perceptions of labor market conditions.

• Temporary-help employment increased by +3,400 in July, contributing positively and suggesting a slight improvement in hiring within a sector often viewed as a leading labor market indicator.

• The largest negative contribution came from the share of involuntary part-time workers, which increased to 17.4% from 17.1% in June, indicating some deterioration in labor market quality.

• Overall, six of the ETI's eight components contributed positively and two contributed negatively, with industrial production joining involuntary part-time employment as the only drags on the index.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) fell to 106.69 in June from 106.90 in May (-0.21 pts MoM), marking a second consecutive decline and signaling slower payroll growth ahead.

• The ETI declined to 106.69 (May: 106.90; -0.21 pts MoM), indicating a continued softening in this leading indicator of employment after recent stability.
• The share of consumers reporting jobs are “hard to get” rose to 22.5%, the highest since January 2021, contributing negatively and pointing to worsening perceptions of job availability.
• Initial jobless claims increased to 222,000 in June, marking the second consecutive monthly rise and the highest monthly average of the year, signaling some softening in labor market conditions.
• Real manufacturing and trade sales also contributed negatively, indicating weaker momentum in broader economic activity feeding into the index.
• Positive contributions were led by the share of firms reporting positions they cannot fill, which rose to 32% (+3 ppts MoM), rebounding from a low May reading and indicating persistent hiring challenges.
• The share of involuntary part-time workers declined to 17.1% (-0.3 ppts MoM), contributing positively and suggesting some improvement in labor market quality.
• Temporary-help employment increased again, with a cumulative gain of +47,800 in H1 2026, while job openings remained elevated and contributed positively for the third straight month, indicating continued underlying labor demand.
• Overall, three of eight components contributed negatively while five contributed positively, reflecting a mixed composition but with headline weakness tied primarily to deteriorating consumer perceptions and rising jobless claims.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI), a leading indicator of payroll growth, fell to 107.01 in May from an upwardly revised 107.88 in April, suggesting some downside risks for the labor market despite another strong monthly payrolls report.

• Five of the index's eight components contributed negatively. The largest drag came from the share of small firms reporting positions they cannot fill, which fell to 29% from 34%, the lowest reading since May 2020.
• Job openings also weighed on the index. While JOLTS openings rose above 7.6 mil in April, The Conference Board noted that the increase was concentrated in professional and business services and may not be sustained.
• Initial jobless claims increased to 214.8k in May, while industrial production and real manufacturing and trade sales were little changed and also detracted modestly from the index.
• On the positive side, labor market quality indicators improved. The share of involuntary part-time workers fell to 17.4% from 17.9%, the share of consumers saying jobs are hard to get declined to 18.6% from 19.4%, and temporary-help employment continued to rise.
• While the monthly decline points to some moderation ahead, the ETI remains +2.1 points above its level six months ago, suggesting the broader labor market continues to show resilience despite signs of gradual cooling.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index increased +0.25 pts MoM to 105.77 in April (from a revised 105.52 in March), indicating a modest rebound in a leading indicator of payroll employment and stabilization after prior declines.

• The ETI rose to 105.77 in April (+0.25 pts MoM), reversing the March decline and signaling improved momentum in the composite measure used to forecast employment trends.
• Seven of eight components contributed positively, indicating broad-based improvement across labor and activity indicators and reinforcing the view of continued labor market resilience.
• The share of consumers reporting jobs are “hard to get” declined -1.5 ppts to 19.8%, the lowest since the start of the year, suggesting improved perceptions of job availability.
• The share of small firms reporting positions they cannot fill increased +2 ppts to 34%, reaching the highest level since June 2025 and indicating renewed hiring demand or labor shortages.
• Initial unemployment insurance claims declined to 203,300, continuing a downward trend from 2025 levels and reaching near-historic lows, signaling fewer layoffs.
• Employment in temporary help services increased and has contributed positively for four consecutive months, suggesting strengthening short-term hiring demand.
• Industrial production and real manufacturing and trade sales increased slightly in April, contributing positively and indicating some improvement in broader economic activity.
• The only negative contribution came from the share of involuntary part-time workers, which rose to 17.9% (above the 2025 average of 17.5%), pointing to some ongoing labor market slack despite overall improvement.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index declined -0.12 pts MoM to 105.72 in March (from 105.84 in February), signaling a slight softening in a leading indicator of payroll employment amid a still resilient labor market.

• The ETI fell to 105.72 in March from an upwardly revised 105.84 in February (-0.12 pts MoM), indicating a modest pullback in the composite measure that signals future employment trends.

• Five of eight components contributed negatively, including the share of involuntary part-time workers, firms unable to fill positions, perceptions that jobs are hard to get, industrial production, and real manufacturing and trade sales, pointing to broad-based softening across labor and activity indicators.

• The share of consumers reporting jobs are “hard to get” rose to 21.5% in March (+5 ppts YoY vs March 2025), highlighting a deterioration in job availability perceptions.

• The share of small firms reporting positions they cannot fill declined -1 ppt to 32%, suggesting some easing in hiring constraints relative to prior months.

• The share of involuntary part-time workers increased to 16.5% in March, though it remains below 19.4% in December, indicating a recent uptick but improvement over recent peaks.

• Initial jobless claims declined to 207,800, continuing a steady improvement from the 2025 average of 226,450, providing a positive contribution to the index and signaling fewer layoffs.

• Employment in temporary help services increased marginally in March and in three of the past five months, contributing positively and suggesting some stabilization in short-term hiring demand.

• Industrial production and real manufacturing and trade sales were described as steady but still contributed negatively to the index, reflecting limited momentum in broader economic activity.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index increased +0.19 pts MoM to 105.37 in February, continuing a modest upward trend in a leading indicator of payroll employment.

• The Employment Trends Index rose to 105.37 in February from an upwardly revised 105.18 in January (+0.19 pts MoM), indicating a small improvement in the composite measure used to signal the direction of payroll employment.

• The share of involuntary part-time workers declined to 16.2% in February from 19.4% in December, representing the largest positive contribution to the index for a second consecutive month.

• The share of small firms reporting positions they are unable to fill improved to 33% after reaching a post-pandemic low of 31% in January, contributing positively to the ETI.

• Six of the eight ETI components contributed negatively in February, reversing the pattern seen in January when seven components made positive contributions.

• The share of consumers reporting that jobs are “hard to get” rose to 20.6% in February, the highest level since early 2021, indicating weaker perceptions of job availability.

• Initial unemployment insurance claims increased in February after declining steadily since September, while employment in temporary help services fell following gains in two of the prior three months.

• Industrial production and real manufacturing and trade sales both declined during the month, contributing negatively to the index and highlighting mixed signals among the ETI components.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index increased to 105.06 (+0.55 pts MoM) in January, a level associated with continued payroll growth and potential shifts in hiring trends ahead.

• Initial unemployment insurance claims declined in January, extending the drop from mid 2025 highs and indicating layoffs remained mild.

• The share of involuntary part-time workers fell to 17.6%, the lowest since September, suggesting improved labor utilization conditions.

• The share of consumers reporting jobs are hard to get rose to 20.8%, the highest since early 2021, pointing to weaker perceptions of job availability.

• The share of small firms unable to fill positions fell to 31% (post pandemic low), while firms planning to increase employment dropped to a three-month low, indicating softer hiring intentions.

• Six of eight ETI components contributed positively, including temporary help hiring, job openings, real manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production, showing broad support from activity indicators.

• Manufacturing activity and employment indicators remained mixed, while consumer and business confidence weakened, suggesting stability alongside cautious sentiment.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index declined -0.37 pts MoM to 104.27 in December, indicating softer labor market sentiment and signals of slower payroll growth ahead.

• The Employment Trends Index fell to 104.27 in December from a downwardly revised 104.64 in November (-0.37 pts MoM), marking another decline in the composite leading indicator for payroll employment.

• The share of consumers reporting that jobs are “hard to get” rose to 20.8% in December, the highest level since early 2021, indicating weaker perceptions of job availability.

• The share of involuntary part-time workers increased to 19.4% in December, also the highest rate since early 2021, suggesting a rise in underemployment among part-time workers.

• The share of small firms reporting positions they are unable to fill held steady at 33%, remaining near the post-pandemic low reached in July and indicating reduced hiring difficulty relative to earlier periods.

• Initial unemployment insurance claims increased marginally in December following declines in October and November, showing a slight uptick in new filings after recent improvement.

• Job openings declined by -303,000 in November to the lowest level since 2020, indicating reduced labor demand in the most recent available data.

• Real manufacturing and trade sales and industrial production were largely steady toward the end of 2025, while surveys of manufacturing activity and employment across goods-producing sectors continued to show contraction.

• Six of the eight ETI components contributed negatively to the December reading, with only job openings contributing positively while the share of firms unable to fill positions was unchanged.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index fell to 105.80 in October and November (from a revised 106.24 in September), signaling modest softening in labor market momentum amid delayed data and elevated uncertainty.

• The ETI decline reflected consecutive negative contributions from involuntary part-time employment and temporary-help employment, both pointing to softer labor demand relative to earlier in the year.

• The share of involuntary part-time workers rose to 19.2% in November (from 16.8% in September), indicating a higher proportion of workers unable to secure full-time hours.

• Employment in the temporary-help industry declined further in October and November, extending a downtrend from its 2022 post-pandemic peak and weighing on the index.

• Initial unemployment insurance claims declined in October and November after reaching recent highs in September, providing a partial offset to other signs of labor market softening.

• JOLTS job openings held steady at 7.7 million in October following a +400k increase in September, suggesting stabilization in vacancy levels.

• The share of consumers reporting that “jobs are hard to get” edged down to 17.9% in November (from 18.2% in September), a small improvement in perceived job availability.

• The share of small firms reporting positions not able to be filled rose modestly to 33% in November (from 32%), remaining near post-pandemic lows and consistent with easing labor shortages.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) inched up to 106.84 in September (from a revised 106.68 in August), a slight rebound but still close to its lowest reading since the pandemic, reflecting subdued momentum in labor market conditions.

• Initial unemployment insurance claims were flat in September, and the share of involuntary part time workers held at 17% for a third month, indicating little month to month movement in these components.

• Real manufacturing and trade sales and industrial production also held steady in recent releases, showing no significant change in underlying economic activity feeding into labor demand.

• JOLTS job openings rose by 19,000 in August after several months of declines, providing a modest positive contribution following earlier weakness.

• The share of consumers saying “jobs are hard to get” fell to 18.2% (from 19.1%), offering a slight improvement in perceived job availability.

• The share of small firms reporting unfillable positions remained unchanged at 32%, staying at its post pandemic low and signaling continued easing in labor shortages.

• Temporary help employment contributed negatively to the index, reflecting weaker demand for flexible labor as firms remain cautious.

• Five of eight ETI components contributed positively in September, two contributed negatively, and one was flat, consistent with the report’s characterization of a “low-hire, low-fire” environment amid persistent economic uncertainty.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) fell to 106.41 in August from a revised 107.13 in July, its lowest level since early 2021, signaling mounting labor market pressures.

• The share of consumers saying “jobs are hard to get” rose to 20% (from 18.9%), the highest since early 2021.
• Small firms reporting unfillable jobs fell to 32%, continuing a steady decline from 36% in June.
• JOLTS job openings fell -176k in July, following a -355k drop in June, more than offsetting earlier spring gains.
• Temporary-help employment declined -9,800 in August, extending the sector’s weakness.
• Initial unemployment insurance claims ticked higher, returning to levels last seen in May.
• Industrial Production contracted between June and July, while Real Manufacturing & Trade Sales growth slowed to +3.1% YoY (from +4.6% in March).
• Six of eight ETI components were negative in both July and August, the first such streak since November 2024, suggesting a potential turning point for softer hiring.