The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to –0.02 in June from –0.19 in May. One of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from May, and two categories made negative contributions in June. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.05 in June from –0.10 in May.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to –0.03 in June from –0.01 in May. Forty of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in June, while 45 made negative contributions. Forty-seven indicators improved from May to June, while 37 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 17 made negative contributions.

• Production-related indicators contributed –0.05 to the CFNAI in June, down from –0.03 in May.
• The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution to the CFNAI was +0.01 in June, up from –0.09 in May.
• Employment-related indicators contributed –0.04 to the CFNAI in June, unchanged from May.
• The personal consumption and housing category's contribution to the CFNAI was +0.05 in June, up from –0.03 in May.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.10 in May from +0.19 in April. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from April, and three categories made negative contributions in May. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.03 in May from +0.07 in April.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to –0.01 in May from +0.06 in April. Thirty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in May, while 50 made negative contributions. Forty-two indicators improved from April to May, while 41 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 16 made negative contributions.

• Production-related indicators contributed –0.04 to the CFNAI in May, down from +0.23 in April.
• The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution to the CFNAI was +0.02 in May, up from –0.04 in April.
• Employment-related indicators contributed –0.04 to the CFNAI in May, down from +0.05 in April.
• The personal consumption and housing category's contribution to the CFNAI was –0.04 in May, unchanged from April.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.14 in April from –0.15 in March. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from March, and two categories made positive contributions in April. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.03 in April from +0.02 in March.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to +0.06 in April from +0.03 in March. Forty-seven of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 38 made negative contributions. Forty-four indicators improved from March to April, while 40 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 11 made negative contributions.

• Production-related indicators contributed +0.18 to the CFNAI in April, up from –0.13 in March.
• The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution to the CFNAI was +0.02 in April, up from –0.03 in March.
• Employment-related indicators contributed –0.02 to the CFNAI in April, down from a neutral value in March.
• The personal consumption and housing category's contribution to the CFNAI was –0.04 in April, down from a neutral value in March.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.20 in March from +0.03 in February. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from February, and three categories made negative contributions in March. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.03 in March from +0.03 in February.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to –0.04 in March from –0.08 in February. Thirty-four of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in March, while 51 made negative contributions. Forty-three indicators improved from February to March, while 40 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 16 made negative contributions.

• Production-related indicators contributed –0.20 to the CFNAI in March, down from +0.13 in February.
• The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution to the CFNAI was –0.01 in March, down from +0.05 in February.
• Employment-related indicators contributed +0.02 to the CFNAI in March, up from –0.15 in February.
• The personal consumption and housing category's contribution to the CFNAI was –0.01 in March, down from a neutral value in February.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.11 in February from +0.20 in January. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from January, and three categories made negative contributions in February. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.01 in February from –0.02 in January.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to –0.17 in February from –0.13 in January. Thirty-one of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in February, while 54 made negative contributions. Thirty-one indicators improved from January to February, while 53 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 14 made negative contributions.

• Production-related indicators contributed –0.01 to the CFNAI in February, down from +0.21 in January.
• The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution to the CFNAI was –0.01 in February, unchanged from January.
• Employment-related indicators contributed –0.10 to the CFNAI in February, down from +0.02 in January.
• The personal consumption and housing category's contribution to the CFNAI was +0.01 in February, up from –0.02 in January.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.18 in January (from -0.21 in December), signaling stronger economic activity month over month.

• The CFNAI increased to +0.18 from -0.21 MoM, with all four major indicator categories improving and two contributing positively to growth.

• The three-month moving average CFNAI MA3 improved to -0.06 from -0.29, indicating firmer short-term momentum despite remaining slightly below trend.

• The CFNAI Diffusion Index rose to -0.06 from -0.36, showing a broader share of indicators strengthening across the economy.

• 47 of 85 indicators contributed positively while 38 were negative; 57 improved and 28 deteriorated, suggesting widespread monthly improvement.

• Production indicators contributed +0.19 (from -0.03), representing the largest category gain.

• Employment indicators contributed +0.01 (from -0.11) and sales, orders, and inventories improved to -0.02 (from -0.04), indicating reduced drag from labor and demand conditions.

• Personal consumption and housing contributed 0.00 (from -0.04), shifting to neutral after previously subtracting from the index.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to -0.04 in November (from -0.42 in October), while the CFNAI-MA3 improved to -0.23, indicating economic activity remained below trend but strengthened month over month.

• CFNAI increased from -0.42 in October to -0.04 in November, reflecting a broad improvement across most indicator categories.

• The CFNAI three-month moving average rose to -0.23 from -0.34, showing firmer short-term momentum despite still-negative readings.

• The CFNAI Diffusion Index improved to -0.24 from -0.43, indicating a larger share of indicators were strengthening compared with October.

• 40 of 85 indicators made positive contributions in November, while 45 made negative contributions, keeping the overall index slightly below zero.

• 58 indicators improved MoM, while 27 deteriorated, suggesting widespread month-to-month gains across components.

• Production-related indicators shifted to a +0.08 contribution from -0.26 in October, marking the largest positive category change.

• Sales, orders, and inventories contributed -0.03, unchanged from October, showing continued modest drag.

• Employment-related indicators improved to -0.07 from -0.11, while personal consumption and housing edged up to -0.02 from -0.03, indicating smaller negative contributions.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to -0.21 in September (Aug: -0.31; Sep 2024: -0.25), indicating activity remained below trend.

• CFNAI improved to -0.21 from -0.31 in August, but the CFNAI-MA3 fell to -0.21 from -0.18, showing softer 3 month momentum despite the better monthly reading.

• The CFNAI Diffusion Index fell to -0.32 from -0.20, and was lower than Sep 2024 (-0.13), indicating weakness was more broadly shared across indicators.

• Of 85 indicators, 25 made positive contributions and 60 made negative contributions in September, consistent with a negative overall index.

• A total of 52 indicators improved from August to September, while 32 deteriorated and one was unchanged, but 32 of the improving indicators still made negative contributions, showing improvement from weak levels.

• Production-related indicators contributed -0.10 (Aug: -0.13), a smaller drag than the prior month.

• Sales, orders, and inventories contributed -0.07 (Aug: -0.05), indicating a slightly larger negative contribution than in August.

• Employment-related indicators contributed +0.01 (Aug: -0.11), shifting from a negative to a slightly positive contribution.

• Personal consumption and housing contributed -0.06 (Aug: -0.03), a deeper negative contribution than the prior month.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved to -0.12 in August 2025 from -0.28 in July, indicating a modest pickup in activity though growth remains below trend.

• The CFNAI-MA3 (3-month moving average) edged up to -0.18 (Jul: -0.20), suggesting slightly firmer momentum but still negative overall.

• The CFNAI Diffusion Index increased to -0.24 (Jul: -0.29), reflecting a narrower spread of weakness across the 85 tracked indicators.

• Production-related indicators contributed -0.02 (Jul: -0.17), showing a significant easing of drag from the prior month.

• Sales, orders, and inventories were neutral (Jul: -0.02), pointing to stabilization in demand and supply conditions.

• Employment indicators contributed -0.07 (Jul: -0.10), indicating less weakness but still negative labor market conditions.

• Personal consumption and housing contributed -0.03 (Jul: +0.02), turning slightly weaker on the month.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined slightly to -0.19 in July 2025 (Jun: -0.18), signaling continued below-trend growth.

• The CFNAI-MA3 (3-month moving average) improved to -0.18 (Jun: -0.26), showing modest stabilization in broader momentum.
• The CFNAI Diffusion Index rose to -0.31 (Jun: -0.40), reflecting a narrower spread of weakness across indicators.
• Production-related indicators contributed -0.10 (Jun: +0.01), marking a shift back into contraction.
• Sales, orders, and inventories improved, contributing -0.02 (Jun: -0.10).
• Employment indicators contributed -0.06 (Jun: -0.08), while personal consumption and housing were neutral (Jun: -0.01).

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to -0.10 in June 2025 (from -0.16 in May), reflecting slightly improved activity, though still below trend.

• The CFNAI-MA3 (3-month moving average) declined to -0.22 (May: -0.14), pointing to a slower trend in economic momentum.
• The CFNAI Diffusion Index fell to -0.37 (May: -0.32), indicating broader weakness across indicators.
• Production-related indicators improved slightly, contributing -0.01 (May: -0.06).
• Sales, orders, and inventories contributed -0.04 (May: +0.01), and employment contributed -0.05 (May: -0.01).
• Personal consumption and housing improved to -0.01 (May: -0.10).