The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined slightly to -0.19 in July 2025 (Jun: -0.18), signaling continued below-trend growth.

• The CFNAI-MA3 (3-month moving average) improved to -0.18 (Jun: -0.26), showing modest stabilization in broader momentum.
• The CFNAI Diffusion Index rose to -0.31 (Jun: -0.40), reflecting a narrower spread of weakness across indicators.
• Production-related indicators contributed -0.10 (Jun: +0.01), marking a shift back into contraction.
• Sales, orders, and inventories improved, contributing -0.02 (Jun: -0.10).
• Employment indicators contributed -0.06 (Jun: -0.08), while personal consumption and housing were neutral (Jun: -0.01).