The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to -0.21 in September (Aug: -0.31; Sep 2024: -0.25), indicating activity remained below trend.

• CFNAI improved to -0.21 from -0.31 in August, but the CFNAI-MA3 fell to -0.21 from -0.18, showing softer 3 month momentum despite the better monthly reading.

• The CFNAI Diffusion Index fell to -0.32 from -0.20, and was lower than Sep 2024 (-0.13), indicating weakness was more broadly shared across indicators.

• Of 85 indicators, 25 made positive contributions and 60 made negative contributions in September, consistent with a negative overall index.

• A total of 52 indicators improved from August to September, while 32 deteriorated and one was unchanged, but 32 of the improving indicators still made negative contributions, showing improvement from weak levels.

• Production-related indicators contributed -0.10 (Aug: -0.13), a smaller drag than the prior month.

• Sales, orders, and inventories contributed -0.07 (Aug: -0.05), indicating a slightly larger negative contribution than in August.

• Employment-related indicators contributed +0.01 (Aug: -0.11), shifting from a negative to a slightly positive contribution.

• Personal consumption and housing contributed -0.06 (Aug: -0.03), a deeper negative contribution than the prior month.