Chicago Fed National Activity Index: October and November 2025 (DELAYED)

Mon, Jan 26, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET Next release · Sep 21, 8:30 AM ET

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to -0.04 in November (from -0.42 in October), while the CFNAI-MA3 improved to -0.23, indicating economic activity remained below trend but strengthened month over month.

  • CFNAI increased from -0.42 in October to -0.04 in November, reflecting a broad improvement across most indicator categories.

  • The CFNAI three-month moving average rose to -0.23 from -0.34, showing firmer short-term momentum despite still-negative readings.

  • The CFNAI Diffusion Index improved to -0.24 from -0.43, indicating a larger share of indicators were strengthening compared with October.

  • 40 of 85 indicators made positive contributions in November, while 45 made negative contributions, keeping the overall index slightly below zero.

  • 58 indicators improved MoM, while 27 deteriorated, suggesting widespread month-to-month gains across components.

  • Production-related indicators shifted to a +0.08 contribution from -0.26 in October, marking the largest positive category change.

  • Sales, orders, and inventories contributed -0.03, unchanged from October, showing continued modest drag.

  • Employment-related indicators improved to -0.07 from -0.11, while personal consumption and housing edged up to -0.02 from -0.03, indicating smaller negative contributions.