The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.1%, with the 50% probability interval at [0.8, 3.2]% and the 80% probability interval at [-0.1, 4.2]%.

• News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate by 0.1 percentage point.
• This decrease was largely driven by the negative revision to 2025 Q4 GDP data.