The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.2%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.0, 3.3]% and the 80% probability interval at [0, 4.3]%.

• News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate for 2026 Q1 by 0.2 percentage point.
• This decrease was largely driven by negative surprises from retail sales data and nonfarm payroll employment data.