The final New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025 Q4 was 2.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 4.0]% and the 80% interval at [0.5, 5.1]%. The advance estimate of real GDP growth for 2025 Q4, released by the Commerce Department on February 20, was 1.4%.

• The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.4%. News from this week's data releases decreased the estimate by 0.2 percentage point.
• This decrease was largely driven by a negative surprise from GDP data.