The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025 Q4 is 2.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 4.0]% and the 80% interval at [0.5, 5.1]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q1 is 2.6%.

• News from this week's data releases left the estimates for 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q1 unchanged.
• A positive impact from nonfarm payroll employment data was offset by a negative impact from retail sales data for both quarters.