The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell -2.0 pts to 98.8 in September 2025, the first decline in three months, reflecting rising inflation concerns, weaker sales expectations, and persistent labor challenges, even as optimism stayed above the long-run average.

• The Uncertainty Index rose +7 pts to 100, its fourth-highest level in more than 51 years, as owners grew less confident about expansion plans.

• A net 24% of firms raised prices in September (+3 pts MoM), and 31% plan further price hikes (+5 pts MoM), suggesting sustained inflation pressures.

• Inflation was cited as the single most important problem by 14% of owners (+3 pts MoM), while 64% reported supply chain disruptions (+10 pts MoM).

• The share of owners viewing current inventories as “too low” fell sharply to -7% (-7 pts MoM), the largest monthly drop in the survey’s history.

• Profit trends improved modestly, with the net share reporting higher earnings up +3 pts to -16%, the strongest reading since December 2021.

• Labor markets remained tight: 32% of firms had unfilled job openings (unchanged), while 16% plan new hires (+1 pt MoM) and 31% raised compensation (+2 pts MoM).

• The share of firms citing labor quality as their top problem fell -3 pts to 18%, now tied with taxes (18%) as the leading concern.

• Borrowing conditions tightened, with 7% reporting loans harder to obtain (+4 pts MoM) and the average short-term rate rising to 8.8% (+0.7 ppts MoM).

• Only 11% of owners said it was a good time to expand (-3 pts MoM), underscoring elevated uncertainty and cautious sentiment heading into Q4.