UK real GDP rose +0.1% in the three months to December 2025 and +1.0% YoY, marking a modest rebound after two consecutive three-month declines.

• Real GDP increased +0.1% in the three months to December (vs -0.1% in the three months to November and -0.1% in the three months to October), indicating a return to marginal expansion after earlier weakness.

• Services output was flat over the three months (0.0%), the third consecutive three-month period of no growth, while production rose +1.2% and construction fell -2.1%, highlighting sector divergence.

• On a monthly basis, GDP rose +0.1% MoM in December (after +0.2% in November and -0.1% in October), with services up +0.3% offset by production -0.9% and construction -0.5%.

• Over the three months to December YoY, GDP grew +1.0%, with services +1.0%, production +1.0%, and construction +0.2%; annual GDP for 2025 rose +1.3% YoY, the first annual growth in production since 2021.

• Within services, administrative and support activities rose +1.2%, information and communication +0.4%, and health and social work +0.2%, while professional, scientific and technical activities fell -1.1% and education -0.5%, showing mixed subsector momentum.

• Production growth over the three months was driven by manufacturing +0.9%, electricity and gas +3.1%, mining and quarrying +1.4%, and water supply +0.7%, reversing prior multi-month declines; however, manufacturing fell -0.5% MoM in December.

• Construction output declined -2.1% over the three months, with new work -2.6% and repair and maintenance -1.5%, marking the largest three-month fall since September 2021; monthly output fell -0.5% in December, led by -2.5% in repair and maintenance.

UK real GDP increased +0.3% MoM (vs +0.1% MoM expected) and +1.4% YoY in November 2025, showing a rebound after October weakness.

• Real GDP grew +0.1% (vs -0.2% expected) in the three months to November 2025 vs the three months to August, following 0.0% growth in the three months to October (revised up from -0.1%) and +0.1% growth in the three months to September.

• Services output rose +0.2% over the three months to November (after +0.1% in the three months to October), making services the largest contributor to the +0.1% three-month GDP increase.

• Production output fell -0.1% in the three months to November, marking a third consecutive three-month decline, with a -18.9% fall in motor vehicle manufacturing detracting 0.11pp from GDP growth.

• Construction output declined -1.1% in the three months to November (after -0.3% in the three months to October), the weakest three-month construction reading since March 2023 and consistent with slowing momentum since May 2025.

• On the month, services rose +0.3% in November after falling -0.3% in October; professional, scientific and technical activities increased +1.7% after four straight monthly declines, while information and communication rose +1.5% after -0.9% in October.

• Production grew +1.1% MoM in November, driven by manufacturing up +2.1%; transport equipment rose +10.7% and motor vehicles jumped +25.5% following recent volatility tied to an August cyber incident and subsequent normalization.

• Construction fell -1.3% MoM in November after a revised -1.2% drop in October, with declines in both new work (-1.9%) and repair and maintenance (-0.4%); public new housing fell -10.8% and was the main monthly drag.

UK monthly GDP is estimated to have fallen by -0.1% MoM (vs +0.1% MoM expected) in October 2025 and rose +1.1% YoY, extending a period of weak short-term momentum.

• Real GDP declined -0.1% in the three months to October 2025 versus the three months to July, the first three-month contraction since December 2023, following +0.1% growth in the three months to September and +0.2% in the three months to August.

• Services output was flat (0.0%) in the three months to October after +0.2% growth previously, continuing a clear slowdown in service-sector momentum since March 2025.

• Production output fell -0.5% in the three months to October for a sixth consecutive three-month decline, driven largely by a -17.7% drop in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers.

• Construction output declined -0.3% in the three months to October, reversing +0.1% growth in the prior three-month period, with weakness concentrated in private housing repair and maintenance.

• On a monthly basis, GDP fell -0.1% MoM in October following a -0.1% decline in September and flat growth in August, indicating persistent softness at the end of Q3 and start of Q4.

• Monthly services output dropped -0.3% MoM in October, with notable declines in wholesale and retail trade (-1.4%) and information and communication (-1.2%), despite longer-term positive trends in some subsectors.

• Monthly production output rebounded +1.1% MoM in October after a -2.0% fall in September, reflecting broad-based gains across manufacturing, mining and utilities, including a +9.5% rebound in motor vehicle manufacturing.

• Construction output fell -0.6% MoM in October after a +0.2% rise in September, led by a -2.4% decline in private new housing, reinforcing the weaker three-month construction trend.

Monthly GDP is estimated to have fallen by -0.1% MoM in September 2025, following no growth in August 2025 (revised down from a growth of 0.1% in our previous publication) and an unrevised fall of 0.1% in July 2025.

• Production fell by 2.0%, whereas services grew by 0.2% and construction grew by 0.2% in September 2025; this fall in production was largely because of a fall in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers.
• The manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers fell by 28.6%; a negative contribution of 0.17 percentage points to the fall in GDP in September 2025.
• Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.1% in the three months to September 2025, following growth of 0.2% in the three months to August 2025 (revised down from growth of 0.3% in our previous publication).
• Services output grew by 0.2%, compared with growth of 0.3% in the three months to August 2025 (revised down from our initial estimate of 0.4%).
• Production output fell by 0.5%; this follows a fall of 0.1% in the three months to August 2025 (revised up from a fall of 0.3% in our previous publication).
• Construction output increased by 0.1%, compared with a growth of 0.4% in the three months to August 2025 (revised up from our initial estimate of 0.3%).

UK real GDP grew +0.2% in the three months to July 2025 (vs +0.3% in June and +0.6% in May), marking the third consecutive slowdown in quarterly growth momentum.

• Monthly GDP was flat (0.0%) in July, after +0.4% in June and -0.1% in May, reflecting mixed performance across sectors.

• Services output rose +0.4% in the three months to July, the main driver of GDP, with notable contributions from health & social work (+1.5%), professional & technical (+1.2%), and information & communication (+1.4%).

• Production fell -1.3% over the same period, following -0.3% in June, led by manufacturing (-1.1%), electricity & gas supply (-5.1%), and mining (-1.8%).

• Construction increased +0.6% in the three months to July, supported by infrastructure new work (+2.1%) and private housing repair & maintenance (+3.8%).

• In July alone, services rose +0.1% and construction +0.2%, while production fell -0.9%, with broad-based declines in manufacturing (-1.3%) and mining (-2.0%).

• On a YoY basis, GDP grew +1.2% in the three months to July, with services (+1.3%) and construction (+1.8%) higher, while production showed no growth.

• Consumer-facing services output declined -0.6% in the three months to July, weighed down by retail trade (-0.9%) and travel services (-9.1%), though accommodation (+1.7%) and food & beverage (+0.6%) provided partial offsets.

UK GDP grew 0.4% MoM in June 2025, rebounding after declines of -0.1% MoM in both April and May. In the three months to June, GDP rose 0.3% QoQ, driven by services and construction, while production contracted.

• Services output increased 0.3% MoM, following +0.1% in May and -0.2% in April, and grew 0.4% QoQ.
• Production output rose 0.7% MoM, reversing a -1.3% decline in May, but fell -0.3% QoQ.
• Construction output gained 0.3% MoM after a -0.5% drop in May, and was up 1.2% QoQ.
• On a YoY basis, GDP rose 1.4% in June, with services up 1.2%, production up 0.3%, and construction up 2.2%.

GDP

UK GDP was reported to have fallen for the second straight month in May with a drop of -0.1% MoM. The decline was below expectations of a small 0.1% MoM. While there was a downside surprise in the monthly move, GDP growth in the last three months, compared to the three months before, was 0.5%, slightly ahead of expectations of a 0.4% increase. That positive surprise was a result of an upward revision in March's monthly GDP growth from 0.2% MoM to 0.4% MoM. Still, the overall trend in the quarterly data is a deceleration in growth at a 0.5% increase is down from 0.7% in March and April, and the weakest since February.

Services

The expansion over the last three months was driven by the services sector, which saw output edge up 0.1% MoM in May and grew 0.4% in the three months to May. Within the services sector, the expansion in May was broad-based as 10 of 14 subsectors saw growth, led by the information and communication (+2.0% MoM) and professional and technical activities (+0.8% MoM) subsectors. Solid growth in these categories was weighed down by weakness in wholesale and retail trade (-1.5% MoM) that was caused by a decline in non-auto retail sales (-2.7% MoM). Indeed, the ONS retail sales report for May found a decline of -2.7% MoM in retail sales volumes, the largest one-month drop since December 2023, although this followed a strong April increase of 1.3% MoM. While retail and wholesale trade caused monthly GDP growth to be lower by -15 bps, its contribution to the three-month growth rate is positive at 4 bps.

Production

The main sector of the economy that is stymying growth is the production sector, which saw a drop of -0.9% MoM in its output in May. With a contribution of -12 bps to monthly GDP growth, the production impact on growth in May was the worst since January 2024. Additionally, the monthly decline of -0.9% was a big miss below expectations of production growth being flat. In the three months to May, the sector has only grown 0.2%. Manufacturing output was particularly weak in May, down -1.0% MoM as 9 out of 13 manufacturing subsectors contracted. The largest negative contributions came from basic pharmaceutical products (-4.2% MoM), transport equipment (-1.3% MoM), and basic metals and metal products (-1.8% MoM). Weakness in the mining and quarrying subsector has also been a growth headwind. Its output fell another -3.2% MoM in May.

Construction

The smaller construction sector also weighed on growth. Construction output dropped -0.6% MoM in May, dragged down by a -2.6% MoM decline in repair and maintenance that was partially offset by a 0.6% MoM increase in the new work index. Unlike the production sector, the three-month trend is a lot stronger with an increase of 1.2%, driven by growth in new infrastructure work of 5.3% in the last three months.

Tariff Impact

The US tariffs on the UK may have had an impact on growth in May, according to the ONS. In the notes highlighting cross-industry themes, it reported that “businesses who also export to the US cited the changes in tariffs on exports as a possible reason for reduced output,” with these comments mainly coming from auto manufacturing and wholesale firms, with other manufacturing areas also voicing their concern. This is consistent with the large drop in auto manufacturing reported by the UK’s Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders (SMMT) in May. SMMT found that vehicle manufacturing had fallen by -32.8% YoY in May, with the production of vehicles meant for export down -30.3% YoY. Shipments to the US were down -55.4% YoY, and the US share of exports dropped -6.9 ppts to 11.3% due to the 25% Section 232 tariffs. However, the SMMT is hopeful that the trade agreement between the US and the UK will correct these numbers in June and help growth rebound in the final month of Q2 2025.