UK monthly GDP is estimated to have fallen by -0.1% MoM (vs +0.1% MoM expected) in October 2025 and rose +1.1% YoY, extending a period of weak short-term momentum.

• Real GDP declined -0.1% in the three months to October 2025 versus the three months to July, the first three-month contraction since December 2023, following +0.1% growth in the three months to September and +0.2% in the three months to August.

• Services output was flat (0.0%) in the three months to October after +0.2% growth previously, continuing a clear slowdown in service-sector momentum since March 2025.

• Production output fell -0.5% in the three months to October for a sixth consecutive three-month decline, driven largely by a -17.7% drop in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers.

• Construction output declined -0.3% in the three months to October, reversing +0.1% growth in the prior three-month period, with weakness concentrated in private housing repair and maintenance.

• On a monthly basis, GDP fell -0.1% MoM in October following a -0.1% decline in September and flat growth in August, indicating persistent softness at the end of Q3 and start of Q4.

• Monthly services output dropped -0.3% MoM in October, with notable declines in wholesale and retail trade (-1.4%) and information and communication (-1.2%), despite longer-term positive trends in some subsectors.

• Monthly production output rebounded +1.1% MoM in October after a -2.0% fall in September, reflecting broad-based gains across manufacturing, mining and utilities, including a +9.5% rebound in motor vehicle manufacturing.

• Construction output fell -0.6% MoM in October after a +0.2% rise in September, led by a -2.4% decline in private new housing, reinforcing the weaker three-month construction trend.