MTS Insights

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.04 in August from +0.08 in July. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July, and one category made a negative contribution in August. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.01 in August from –0.01 in July.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to +0.02 in August from +0.04 in July. Thirty-nine of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in August, while 46 made negative contributions. Thirty-four indicators improved from July to August, while 49 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 11 made negative contributions.

• Production-related indicators contributed –0.07 to the CFNAI in August, down from –0.00 in July.
• The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution to the CFNAI was +0.00 in August, down from +0.15 in July.
• Employment-related indicators contributed +0.01 to the CFNAI in August, up from –0.01 in July.
• The personal consumption and housing category's contribution to the CFNAI was +0.01 in August, up from –0.06 in July.

August Survey: Year-Over-Year Growth in Monthly Spending Decreases Again; Median Expected Change in Monthly Spending Ticks Down for Some Categories

• The median reported year-over-year increase in monthly nominal household spending decreased slightly to 4.7 percent in August 2026 from 4.8 percent in April 2026 and 4.9 percent in December 2025.
• The shares reporting making a large purchase over the past four months on furniture, home repairs, homes, and vacations increased in August, while the shares reporting spending on home appliances, electronics, and vehicles decreased.
• Median expected monthly overall household spending growth over the next twelve months increased to 3.6 percent in August from 3.4 percent in April.
• Median year-ahead expected spending growth decreased by 0.2 percentage point (ppt) for housing, utilities, food, and recreation to 2.9 percent, 4.6 percent, 5.4 percent, and 2.6 percent, respectively, while it also decreased by 0.3 ppt for clothing to 2.6 percent, by 0.7 ppt for transportation to 4.7 percent, and by 0.4 ppt for medical care to 4.5 percent.