MTS Insights

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.08 in July from +0.06 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from June, and two categories made negative contributions in July. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.04 in July from +0.01 in June.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to +0.05 in July from +0.09 in June. Forty of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in July, while 45 made negative contributions. Thirty-seven indicators improved from June to July, while 48 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, seven made negative contributions.

• Production-related indicators contributed +0.01 to the CFNAI in July, down from +0.04 in June.
• The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution to the CFNAI was +0.02 in July, down from +0.04 in June.
• Employment-related indicators contributed –0.01 to the CFNAI in July, up from –0.05 in June.
• The personal consumption and housing category's contribution to the CFNAI was –0.09 in July, down from +0.04 in June.

Job Satisfaction Improves; Job Offer Arrival Expectations at Lowest Level Since March 2021

• The proportion of individuals who reported searching for a job in the past four weeks rebounded to 24.9 percent from 22.5 percent in March 2026. The increase was largest for those with annual incomes less than $60,000.
• Satisfaction with wage compensation, nonwage benefits, and promotion opportunities increased by 2.9, 3.6, and 0.9 percentage points (ppt), respectively. However, satisfaction with wage compensation and promotion opportunities remain close to series lows reached in March 2026.
• The average expected likelihood of receiving at least one job offer in the next four months decreased by 1.1 ppt to 18.0 percent, its lowest reading since March 2021. This decrease was largest for those without a college degree, those younger than age 45, and women.
• The average nominal reservation wage—the lowest wage respondents would be willing to accept for a new job—continued to increase and reached a series high of $88,387 in July. This increase was most pronounced for men, respondents with a college degree, and those younger than age 45.