Airbus, Boeing: Long-Term Aerospace Industry Growth Outlook

Last year, Boeing and Airbus published market outlooks through the year 2036. In their report, Boeing described the industries long-term demand as “robust” with an average annual passenger growth of 4.7 percent over the next 20 years while Airbus forecasted a 4.4 percent rate of growth. Boeing noted that over the next two decades China’s fast growth will make it the largest domestic market in the world while the rest of Asia will become the largest market for travel.
From Boeing and Airbus
Expected new deliveries by Airbus in the next 20-years fall just short of the 35,000 mark. With an existing produced fleet of just 18,890 aircraft as of Q1 2017, this growth appears substantial. Airbus is expecting to replace 12,936 aircraft in their fleet by 2036 and is expecting new growth to reach 21,230. Boeing is forecasting new deliveries to more than double over the next two decades. In order to meet the demand, they are forecasting a need for over 41,000 new deliveries. This will accommodat…

Small Business Credit Outlook: Loan Strength Fuels Russell Rally

Since the beginning of the year, the Russell 2000 small-cap index has been one of the bright performers out of the indices. With YTD returns of 10.13 percent on June 20th, only the NASDAQ, at 11.06 percent, has outpaced it since January 2nd. In comparison, the S&P 500 large-cap index and S&P 400 mid-cap index have returned 2.65 percent and 4.4 percent so far this year. Investors have made it clear they have preferred shares of smaller companies so far in 2018.
Data from the Thomson Reuters/PayNet small business reports present data that suggests stronger credit trends in the small business sector could explain some of the bullishness. The pair of data analytics companies aggregates lending data from firms that represent “Main Street” and presents its findings in their “Small Business Credit Outlook” and “Small Business Credit Monthly Report.” The PayNet website also includes historical data sets for the Small Business Lending Index (SBLI) and Small Business Delinquency Index

CaixaBank: Focus on Fragile Emerging Economies

Caixa Bank Research’s latest report on the international economy provided insight on the fragility of emerging markets. On June 14th, 2018, the Argentine Peso and the Brazilian Real lead the weakness in emerging market currencies falling 6.1 percent and 2.2 percent on the day. A down day that comes just a day after the Federal Reserve raises rates and reaffirms its hawkishness through the rest of the year.

Emerging market currencies have not just had a weak past 24 hours. Since the beginning of May, Caixa reports that “the Argentine peso has depreciated nearly 20% against the US dollar, the Turkish lira more than 10%, and a large number of currencies (including the Polish zloty, the Brazilian real, the Mexican peso, the Chilean peso and the Colombian peso) have depreciated by between –6% and –4%.” The numbers are quite staggering and suggest the hawkish trend in U.S. interest rates is viewed as a crisis-level threat to the stability of emerging markets’ financial systems. Caixa descr…

World Trade Organization Data: Import and Export Trade Profiles

Using the World Trade Organization's Trade in Commercial Services bulk data set, the graphic shows each country's available trade data for each category and calculates the top 5 similar countries based on their trade profiles. Each country has an "export" and an "import" profile as well as 5 similar countries for each type of profile. Similar countries will have similar distributions based on the trade categories normalized for size.

Check out the viz on the official Tableau page here.

World Trade Outlook Indicator: On the Brink of a Trade War

This week, President Donald Trump announced multiple tariffs on some of the United States most active trading partners. Temporary tariff assignments were set to expire on Thursday, and following that expiration, a confirmation that a 10 percent tax on aluminum imports and a 25 percent tax on steel imports was released. Responses were mostly negative on domestic and international fronts with the exception of a positive reception by U.S. aluminum and steel producers. The consensus is that the costs will be passed on to consumers as tariffs will reduce the amount of foreign competition in domestic markets.

Two weeks before the trade announcements, the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) “World Trade Outlook Indicator” suggested a world trade environment that was contracting slightly. The reading fell from 102.3 in February to 101.8 in March.

Six components are used to make up the indicator. All of the data points measure trading activity of different means and different products between cou…

Moody's Credit Markets Review and Outlook: Bullish Default Rates and Treasury Yields

Moody’s is one of the big three credit rating agencies besides Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Group. Investors around the world look to Moody’s to properly assess the financial health of U.S. companies and therefore the risk in U.S. equities. The well-respected organization also posts weekly reports and analysis on various rates and credit data. Weekly, it outlines the biggest issues in the credit and risk in its “Credit Markets Review and Outlook” typically written by its chief economist, Jon Lonski. This week, the report highlights some dynamics in the equity market that show some sensitivity to certain indicators in the credit market. Since the beginning of 2018, the market has been relatively volatile coming off highs in late January. The worst seems to be over, but the S&P 500 appears to be locked into a trading range. Moody’s analysis suggests the market will resume its growth based on falling default rates.
Moody’s states that “roughly 88 percent of the 209 year-over-year…

Iran's Economy: A Statistical Profile

Recently, President Donald Trump has announced the jarring decision to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) also informally known as the Iranian nuclear deal. Since his campaign, he has suggested the deal was a poor one for the United States, and that if he was elected president, he would look to rework the deal. To the dismay of the other members of the United Nations Security Council who signed the deal, he followed through on his promise.
In the deals place, President Trump has reintroduced the idea of economic sanctions on Iran which were lifted at the beginning of 2016. The lifting was supposed to help propel Iran to new economic growth allowing oil exports to resume and foreign money to flow. In a paper written by an IMF economist, three benefits were supposed to take effect:
Exports of oil and gas would resume and cause a “positive external demand shock to the Iranian economy.”Accessibility to financial services, specifically “restored access to the intern…