Commentary Directory
- Q1 GDP Growth Jumps 1.1% on Strong Personal Consumption
- A Strong March Leads to a Surge in Chinese GDP in Q1 2023
- Durable Goods Retail Sales Suffer from High Interest Rates and Wary Consumers
- Choppy GDP Means UK Should Avoid Q1 Recession
- Japanese Consumer Confidence Jumps to Highest Level in Over a Year
- The End of Summer Sees the End of Disinflation in Europe
- Labor Market Indicators are Starting to Unify on Easing in Hiring
- Inflation and Tight Financial Conditions Weigh on the German Consumer
- Euro Area Money Supply Contracts for the First Time Since 2010
- Dismal Economic Data Out of Germany
- Core Durable Goods New Orders See Gentle Uptrend in July
- More UK Data Pointing to Q3 Decline
- Whispers of a UK Contraction in Q3
- Japan's Core Inflation Resumes Uptrend in July
- Early July Economic Data Leads to a Sharp Increase in Q3 Growth Expectations
- UK CPI: Energy Inflation Crashes but Services Inflation is Still Sticky
- China's Weak Start to Q3 Means More PBoC Easing
- A Breather for the Eurozone as Inflation Hits Two-Year Low
- Germany's September CPI Report: A Clearer Picture of Inflation Trends
- US Manufacturing Demonstrates Resilience Amidst Volatility in August
- The ECB Prepares to Address Excess Liquidity Through the MRR
- Bank of Japan is Too Optimistic on Inflation
- The Bank of England Pauses in a Near Split Decision
- UK Inflation August Update: A Precursor to the Bank of England's Announcement
- Housing Starts Tumble in August Amid Rising Mortgage Rates
- US Retail Sales Grow at Fastest Monthly Rate Since the Start of the Year
- US Consumer Prices Surge in August Driven by Energy Costs
- August NFIB Survey Showed a Tough Environment for Small Businesses
- All Signs Point to a Weaker Labor Market in August
- Chinese CPI Trying to Buck the Deflation Trend
- Energy Prices Rise but the Core Disinflationary Trend is Maintained in September
- PPI's Quiet Rise and the Energy Elephant in the Room
- Small Businesses Grapple with Inflation and Financial Strain in September
- A Wacky September Jobs Report Shows Strong Labor Market
- A Look at the Fragile US Labor Market Ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls Report
- Thoughts on GME and This Week in the Stock Market
- Record Home Price Levels Point to Strength in Post-Pandemic Economy
- The Stock Market Looks Overvalued, but It's Probably Not
- China GDP Growth Surpasses Expectations
- President-elect Joe Biden Introduces His "American Rescue Plan"
- Political Polarization Intensifies with Another Impeachment Along Party Lines
- Metal Demand Has a Bright Future in 2021 and Beyond
- What Happened to That US-China Trade Dispute?
- Civil Unrest, A Rising Threat to the 2021 Economy
- What's in the $900 Billion Relief Plan?
Small Businesses Grapple with Inflation and Financial Strain in September
Jacob Hess
October 10, 2023
- Small Business
- US
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index remains below its long-term average for the 21st consecutive month, dropping by -0.5 pts to 90.8. This decline was primarily driven by sub-indexes like Economic Expectations, down -6 pts to -43, and Expected Credit Conditions, down -4 pts to -10. However, several other sub-indexes, like Job Openings and Hiring Plans, showed modest gains.
The Job Openings index saw a 3 pt increase, reaching 43, the highest level since May of this year. This aligns with the spike in job openings reported in the September JOLTS data. Additionally, the Hiring Plans index edged up by 1 pt to 18, also the highest since May. Despite the positive indicators in job openings and hiring plans, the Current Employment Changes index remained negative for the sixth consecutive month at -2. This is likely due to ongoing labor supply issues faced by small businesses. The Qualified Applicants for Job Openings index increased by 3 pts to 57, the highest level this year, and this lack of qualified workers continues to keep labor markets tight and wage growth high.
Let’s turn to the closely watched inflation indexes which showed that inflationary pressures were sticky in September. The Actual Price Changes index increasing by 2 pts to 29, the highest since June. The Price Plans index remained unchanged at 30, marking the second-highest reading in 2023. These index readings in September suggest a slowing in the disinflation trend caused by higher goods input costs, especially energy input costs. Indeed, inflation is still the (joint) highest problem for small businesses with 23% of respondents reporting this in the survey.
Despite the hang up in inflation, the effects of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes are becoming increasingly evident. The average interest rate paid by small businesses rose to 9.8% in September, the highest since before the Great Financial Crisis, up from 9.0% in August. The Expected Credit Conditions index dropped to -10, its lowest in a decade. Given the combination of lower consumer demand and tighter financial conditions, it seems almost inevitable that small businesses will face some sort of recession as the economic environment becomes increasingly challenging.
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