Commentary Directory
- Q1 GDP Growth Jumps 1.1% on Strong Personal Consumption
- A Strong March Leads to a Surge in Chinese GDP in Q1 2023
- Durable Goods Retail Sales Suffer from High Interest Rates and Wary Consumers
- Choppy GDP Means UK Should Avoid Q1 Recession
- Japanese Consumer Confidence Jumps to Highest Level in Over a Year
- The End of Summer Sees the End of Disinflation in Europe
- Labor Market Indicators are Starting to Unify on Easing in Hiring
- Inflation and Tight Financial Conditions Weigh on the German Consumer
- Euro Area Money Supply Contracts for the First Time Since 2010
- Dismal Economic Data Out of Germany
- Core Durable Goods New Orders See Gentle Uptrend in July
- More UK Data Pointing to Q3 Decline
- Whispers of a UK Contraction in Q3
- Japan's Core Inflation Resumes Uptrend in July
- Early July Economic Data Leads to a Sharp Increase in Q3 Growth Expectations
- UK CPI: Energy Inflation Crashes but Services Inflation is Still Sticky
- China's Weak Start to Q3 Means More PBoC Easing
- A Breather for the Eurozone as Inflation Hits Two-Year Low
- Germany's September CPI Report: A Clearer Picture of Inflation Trends
- US Manufacturing Demonstrates Resilience Amidst Volatility in August
- The ECB Prepares to Address Excess Liquidity Through the MRR
- Bank of Japan is Too Optimistic on Inflation
- The Bank of England Pauses in a Near Split Decision
- UK Inflation August Update: A Precursor to the Bank of England's Announcement
- Housing Starts Tumble in August Amid Rising Mortgage Rates
- US Retail Sales Grow at Fastest Monthly Rate Since the Start of the Year
- US Consumer Prices Surge in August Driven by Energy Costs
- August NFIB Survey Showed a Tough Environment for Small Businesses
- All Signs Point to a Weaker Labor Market in August
- Chinese CPI Trying to Buck the Deflation Trend
- Energy Prices Rise but the Core Disinflationary Trend is Maintained in September
- PPI's Quiet Rise and the Energy Elephant in the Room
- Small Businesses Grapple with Inflation and Financial Strain in September
- A Wacky September Jobs Report Shows Strong Labor Market
- A Look at the Fragile US Labor Market Ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls Report
- Thoughts on GME and This Week in the Stock Market
- Record Home Price Levels Point to Strength in Post-Pandemic Economy
- The Stock Market Looks Overvalued, but It's Probably Not
- China GDP Growth Surpasses Expectations
- President-elect Joe Biden Introduces His "American Rescue Plan"
- Political Polarization Intensifies with Another Impeachment Along Party Lines
- Metal Demand Has a Bright Future in 2021 and Beyond
- What Happened to That US-China Trade Dispute?
- Civil Unrest, A Rising Threat to the 2021 Economy
- What's in the $900 Billion Relief Plan?
What Will GDP Growth Look Like in 2022?
Jacob Hess
January 04, 2022
- Outlook
- GDP
A new year is upon us and so are a new set of annual outlooks. The top financial organizations have taken turns guessing what growth might look like in 2022, with most focusing on global and developed market growth. We've compiled a list of forecasts from 25 different sources.
Overall, analysts are looking for a year of above trend growth as the pandemic continues to ease its grip on the economy. However, many cite unignorable downside risks that new variants or other virus complications could create. Another contractionary force that should let up in 2022 is the disruption caused by supply chain disruptions. More smoothness in global trade and production should unlock recovery gains that were supposed to be seen in 2021. As COVID and supply issues resolve, central banks (particularly developed market central banks) will continue the taper that began in Q4 2021 and transition to monetary tightening by Q2 2022.
- Global growth projections for 2022 center around the mid-4% level and are more tightly centered around the median (4.4%) than projections of growth of individual countries. The minimum was given by Citi at 3.8%, and the maximum was given by Charles Schwab at 4.9%.
- US growth projections for 2022 are slightly lower than the global projections and below the 5.5% that is expected in 2021. With a sample size of 22 estimates, the median forecast is 4.0% (given by the Federal Reserve). The minimum was given by FT Portfolios at 3.0%, and the maximum was given by the IMF at 5.2%. It is worth noting that the two highest forecasts (5.2% by the IMF, 4.8% by the Bank of England) were two of the earliest forecasts given.
- Eurozone growth projections for 2022 are quite optimistic as the median edges out the US. The euro area is likely to see more of its rebound in 2022 after being held back more in 2021, and it will benefit from a more cautious ECB that is delaying monetary tightening. The median estimate is 4.1%, just 1 percentage point below 4.2%. The minimum is given by Northern Trust at 3.1%, and the maximum is given by UBS at 4.8%.
- China growth projections for 2022 reflect a reformed economy that is likely to slow from its pre-pandemic pace that reflected its emerging market status. The median estimate of 5.0% is 0.6 percentage points above the global median of 4.4%. The minimum is given by the Conference Board at 3.3%, and the maximum is given by the IMF at 5.6%.
- UK growth projections for 2022 are strong as its economy should experience a strong bounce after going through a series of strict restrictions. The UK is expected to surpass global growth with a median estimate of 4.6%. The minimum is given by Northern Trust at 2.8%, and the maximum is given by Goldman Sachs at 5.3%.
- Japan growth projections for 2022 are, once again, trailing its developed market peers. Post-pandemic Japan is likely to rebound on easing restrictions but limited by Chinese weakness and struggling inflation. The median projection is at 2.8%, the weakest of the developed market forecasts selected. The minimum is given by Northern Trust at 1.9%, and the maximum is given by Fitch Ratings at 3.4%.
- Finally, emerging markets growth projections for 2022 are strong. These nations are the ones struggling with increasing their vaccinations rates and will also be the ones that benefit from more expansive vaccine coverage. The easing of supply disruptions and strong developed market consumption will also boost growth in emerging market exporters. The median estimate is 5.0%. The minimum is given by Wells Fargo at 4.5%, and the maximum is given by the Bank of England at 5.25%.
2022 GDP Growth Forecasts (Selected)
Summary Data: 2022 GDP Growth Forecasts (Selected)
(Click forecast column for report source)| Forecasts | Global | US | Eurozone | China | UK | Japan | Emerging Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Schwab | 4.9% | ||||||
| IMF | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 5.1% |
| UBS | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 5.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 4.9% |
| Goldman Sachs | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 2.8% | |
| LPL Financial | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | ||||
| ING | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.2% | |
| Mean | 4.41% | 4.03% | 4.12% | 4.99% | 4.56% | 2.69% | 4.89% |
| TD Bank | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.6% | |
| Median | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 5.0% |
| Wells Fargo | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 4.5% |
| JPMorgan Chase | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | ||
| IHS Markit | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.5% | |||
| Fitch Ratings | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 4.7% |
| S&P Global | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.3% | |
| Conference Board | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | |||
| Citi | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | ||
| Northern Trust | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% | ||
| DWS Group | 4.1% | ||||||
| FT Portfolios | 3.0% | ||||||
| PNC Bank | 3.8% | ||||||
| CIBC | 4.2% | ||||||
| RBC Capital Markets | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | ||||
| Federal Reserve | 4.0% | ||||||
| ECB | 4.2% | ||||||
| Bank of England | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.25% | ||
| Bank of Japan | 2.9% |
© MTS Insights 2023