The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q2 is 2.7%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.6, 3.9]% and the 80% interval at [0.5, 4.9]%. The Staff Nowcast for 2026 Q3 is 2.5%.

• News from this week's data releases left the estimates for 2026 Q2 and 2026 Q3 largely unchanged.
• For both quarters, negative surprises from housing starts data were offset by positive surprises from retail sales data.