The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined -0.3% MoM to 98.8 in June 2025, marking a -2.8% drop over H1 2025 and triggering a third consecutive recession signal based on the six-month diffusion index.

• May’s LEI was revised up to 0.0% from the originally reported -0.1%.
• Weakness in consumer expectations, new manufacturing orders, and rising jobless claims outweighed support from rising equity prices.
• The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose 0.3% MoM to 115.1, with all four components improving; CEI is up 0.8% in H1 2025.
• The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) was flat at 119.9, but the six-month rate turned positive at +1.4% after falling -0.8% in H2 2024.
• The Conference Board expects 2025 GDP growth at 1.6%, with tariffs likely to weigh on H2 consumption.