The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell -0.1% MoM to 99.0 in May 2025, marking its third consecutive monthly decline and down -2.7% over the past six months.

• April’s LEI was revised lower to -1.4% MoM from -1.0% previously reported.
• Weakness came from initial jobless claims, consumer expectations, new manufacturing orders, and housing permits; equity markets were a positive contributor.
• The Coincident Index rose 0.1% MoM to 115.1 and is up 1.3% over the past six months, supported by gains in employment and income.
• The Lagging Index increased 0.4% MoM to 119.6 and is up 0.8% over the past six months, reversing a previous six-month decline.
• The Conference Board projects 2025 GDP growth at 1.6%, with risks tilted toward further deceleration due to persistent tariff effects.